Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
交易量
$2,851结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,851结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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