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有人被指控在3月31日之前将三角洲部队指挥官带到马杜罗抢劫吗?

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有人被指控在3月31日之前将三角洲部队指挥官带到马杜罗抢劫吗?

2% chance
Polymarket
NEW

2% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.

Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.

Trader consensus reflects 98.3% implied probability of no charges by March 31 for doxing the Delta Force commander linked to Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January 2026. Journalist Seth Harp's now-deleted X post shared a public Army photo and biography of the officer, prompting Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's January 8 referral to the DOJ for investigation into potential criminal violations over alleged leaking of operational details and endangering national security. Nearly three months later, with no indictment, prosecution, or public DOJ action amid First Amendment defenses from press groups, traders see insurmountable barriers in the final days. Only an abrupt late indictment could shift odds, though procedural hurdles and precedent favor inaction.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"有人被指控在3月31日之前将三角洲部队指挥官带到马杜罗抢劫吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"截至3月31日,有人为披露三角洲部队指挥官身份、涉及抓捕马杜罗而被指控吗?",概率为 2%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 2¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 2%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"有人被指控在3月31日之前将三角洲部队指挥官带到马杜罗抢劫吗?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jan 8, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"有人被指控在3月31日之前将三角洲部队指挥官带到马杜罗抢劫吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"有人被指控在3月31日之前将三角洲部队指挥官带到马杜罗抢劫吗?"的当前领先者是"截至3月31日,有人为披露三角洲部队指挥官身份、涉及抓捕马杜罗而被指控吗?",仅有 2%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"有人被指控在3月31日之前将三角洲部队指挥官带到马杜罗抢劫吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。