Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will hold a floor vote on secession from the United States by June 30, 2026, anchored in the Supreme Court's 1869 Texas v. White ruling declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent, a legal barrier unchanged for over 150 years. No bills explicitly calling for full state secession have advanced to votes in any chamber this year; recent activity, such as New Mexico's HJR 10 on county secession to neighboring states and Texas House directives studying potential annexations, pertains to partitions rather than statewide independence. Fringe movements like Texit or Calexit remain ballot initiatives without legislative traction. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented federal-state crisis, like debt default or martial law declaration, prompting emergency sessions—scenarios traders deem improbable within the three-month window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于在2026年6月30日之前，美国州议会有投票决定分离吗？
在2026年6月30日之前，美国州议会有投票决定分离吗？
是
$17,932 交易量
$17,932 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$17,932 交易量
$17,932 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will hold a floor vote on secession from the United States by June 30, 2026, anchored in the Supreme Court's 1869 Texas v. White ruling declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent, a legal barrier unchanged for over 150 years. No bills explicitly calling for full state secession have advanced to votes in any chamber this year; recent activity, such as New Mexico's HJR 10 on county secession to neighboring states and Texas House directives studying potential annexations, pertains to partitions rather than statewide independence. Fringe movements like Texit or Calexit remain ballot initiatives without legislative traction. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented federal-state crisis, like debt default or martial law declaration, prompting emergency sessions—scenarios traders deem improbable within the three-month window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
交易量
$17,932结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will hold a floor vote on secession from the United States by June 30, 2026, anchored in the Supreme Court's 1869 Texas v. White ruling declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent, a legal barrier unchanged for over 150 years. No bills explicitly calling for full state secession have advanced to votes in any chamber this year; recent activity, such as New Mexico's HJR 10 on county secession to neighboring states and Texas House directives studying potential annexations, pertains to partitions rather than statewide independence. Fringe movements like Texit or Calexit remain ballot initiatives without legislative traction. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented federal-state crisis, like debt default or martial law declaration, prompting emergency sessions—scenarios traders deem improbable within the three-month window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$17,932结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-unanimous confidence that no US state legislature will hold a floor vote on secession from the United States by June 30, 2026, anchored in the Supreme Court's 1869 Texas v. White ruling declaring unilateral secession unconstitutional without congressional consent, a legal barrier unchanged for over 150 years. No bills explicitly calling for full state secession have advanced to votes in any chamber this year; recent activity, such as New Mexico's HJR 10 on county secession to neighboring states and Texas House directives studying potential annexations, pertains to partitions rather than statewide independence. Fringe movements like Texit or Calexit remain ballot initiatives without legislative traction. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented federal-state crisis, like debt default or martial law declaration, prompting emergency sessions—scenarios traders deem improbable within the three-month window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题