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氣候與科學·科學

2026年3月溫度升高（ ºC ）

Market icon
氣候與科學·科學

2026年3月溫度升高（ ºC ）

4月 10

4月 10

1.25–1.29ºC 45.1%

>1.29ºC 43.7%

1.20–1.24ºC 9%

1.15–1.19ºC 2.3%

Polymarket

$255,664 交易量

1.25–1.29ºC 45.1%

>1.29ºC 43.7%

1.20–1.24ºC 9%

1.15–1.19ºC 2.3%

Polymarket

$255,664 交易量

小於1.10ºC

$32,672 交易量

1%

1.10–1.14ºC

$36,050 交易量

1%

1.15–1.19ºC

$58,716 交易量

2%

1.20–1.24ºC

$48,299 交易量

9%

1.25–1.29ºC

$29,425 交易量

45%

>1.29ºC

$50,501 交易量

44%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data released in the past week indicate a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.27°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) baseline, fueling trader consensus with 45.2% implied probability for 1.25–1.29ºC and 43.7% for >1.29ºC. This positioning reflects the fading La Niña's diminished cooling effect—evident in January-February anomalies exceeding 1.5ºC—combined with persistent baseline warming trends and elevated sea surface temperatures, though moderated from 2023-2024 El Niño peaks. Differentiating factors include methodological variances in ERA5's data assimilation versus observational datasets like NOAA's, potential Arctic amplification influences, and final quality-control adjustments. Official Copernicus bulletin, expected mid-April, will confirm the value and resolve the market amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$255,664
結束日期
2026-04-10
市場開放時間
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data released in the past week indicate a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.27°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) baseline, fueling trader consensus with 45.2% implied probability for 1.25–1.29ºC and 43.7% for >1.29ºC. This positioning reflects the fading La Niña's diminished cooling effect—evident in January-February anomalies exceeding 1.5ºC—combined with persistent baseline warming trends and elevated sea surface temperatures, though moderated from 2023-2024 El Niño peaks. Differentiating factors include methodological variances in ERA5's data assimilation versus observational datasets like NOAA's, potential Arctic amplification influences, and final quality-control adjustments. Official Copernicus bulletin, expected mid-April, will confirm the value and resolve the market amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$255,664
結束日期
2026-04-10
市場開放時間
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年3月溫度升高（ ºC ）" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.25–1.29ºC" at 45%, followed by ">1.29ºC" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年3月溫度升高（ ºC ）" has generated $255.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年3月溫度升高（ ºC ）," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年3月溫度升高（ ºC ）" is "1.25–1.29ºC" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is ">1.29ºC" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年3月溫度升高（ ºC ）" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.