Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, with an 81.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already in the first quarter: a deep M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of about 15-16 M7+ quakes annually from tectonic plate motions along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where recent activity clustered. While seismic rates follow a Poisson distribution with inherent variability and no predictive forecasts, the remaining three months typically yield four more events, supporting the high odds for 8+ absent an unusual lull; traders await ongoing USGS catalog updates for confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於8+ 82%
7 14%
6 2.5%
5 <1%
$1,781,483 交易量
$1,781,483 交易量
2026-06-30
5
<1%
6
2%
7
14%
8+
82%
8+ 82%
7 14%
6 2.5%
5 <1%
$1,781,483 交易量
$1,781,483 交易量
2026-06-30
5
$431,388 交易量
<1%
6
$111,902 交易量
2%
7
$274,374 交易量
14%
8+
$526,266 交易量
82%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, with an 81.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already in the first quarter: a deep M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of about 15-16 M7+ quakes annually from tectonic plate motions along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where recent activity clustered. While seismic rates follow a Poisson distribution with inherent variability and no predictive forecasts, the remaining three months typically yield four more events, supporting the high odds for 8+ absent an unusual lull; traders await ongoing USGS catalog updates for confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$1,781,483結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, with an 81.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already in the first quarter: a deep M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of about 15-16 M7+ quakes annually from tectonic plate motions along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where recent activity clustered. While seismic rates follow a Poisson distribution with inherent variability and no predictive forecasts, the remaining three months typically yield four more events, supporting the high odds for 8+ absent an unusual lull; traders await ongoing USGS catalog updates for confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$1,781,483結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, with an 81.5% implied probability, driven by USGS-confirmed data showing four such events already in the first quarter: a deep M7.0 off Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, M7.3 off Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1. This pace aligns with the long-term global average of about 15-16 M7+ quakes annually from tectonic plate motions along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, where recent activity clustered. While seismic rates follow a Poisson distribution with inherent variability and no predictive forecasts, the remaining three months typically yield four more events, supporting the high odds for 8+ absent an unusual lull; traders await ongoing USGS catalog updates for confirmation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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