NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list confirm zero potential Earth impacts in 2026 from all cataloged near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the strong 94.7% market-implied probability for "No" on a 1-megaton bolide—a rare airburst event equivalent to twice the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor's energy. Recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovered over 11,000 new NEOs, none posing threats, while March 2026 flybys of small asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 passed safely. Trader consensus reflects this exhaustive monitoring, though a realistic challenge remains the undiscovered small (20-50 meter) NEOs that surveys miss, potentially detectable only weeks before entry; expect ongoing updates from NASA fireballs and close-approach reports through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$102,120 交易量
$102,120 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$102,120 交易量
$102,120 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list confirm zero potential Earth impacts in 2026 from all cataloged near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the strong 94.7% market-implied probability for "No" on a 1-megaton bolide—a rare airburst event equivalent to twice the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor's energy. Recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovered over 11,000 new NEOs, none posing threats, while March 2026 flybys of small asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 passed safely. Trader consensus reflects this exhaustive monitoring, though a realistic challenge remains the undiscovered small (20-50 meter) NEOs that surveys miss, potentially detectable only weeks before entry; expect ongoing updates from NASA fireballs and close-approach reports through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$102,120結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list confirm zero potential Earth impacts in 2026 from all cataloged near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the strong 94.7% market-implied probability for "No" on a 1-megaton bolide—a rare airburst event equivalent to twice the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor's energy. Recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovered over 11,000 new NEOs, none posing threats, while March 2026 flybys of small asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 passed safely. Trader consensus reflects this exhaustive monitoring, though a realistic challenge remains the undiscovered small (20-50 meter) NEOs that surveys miss, potentially detectable only weeks before entry; expect ongoing updates from NASA fireballs and close-approach reports through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$102,120結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre risk list confirm zero potential Earth impacts in 2026 from all cataloged near-Earth objects (NEOs), driving the strong 94.7% market-implied probability for "No" on a 1-megaton bolide—a rare airburst event equivalent to twice the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor's energy. Recent Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovered over 11,000 new NEOs, none posing threats, while March 2026 flybys of small asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 passed safely. Trader consensus reflects this exhaustive monitoring, though a realistic challenge remains the undiscovered small (20-50 meter) NEOs that surveys miss, potentially detectable only weeks before entry; expect ongoing updates from NASA fireballs and close-approach reports through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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