Market icon
氣候與科學·科學

2026年的自然災害？

Market icon
氣候與科學·科學

2026年的自然災害？

是

30% 機率
Polymarket

$191,118 交易量

是

30% 機率
Polymarket

$191,118 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 70.5% for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through early April—no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes per USGS records (recent largest: M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1), no VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts, and no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA support an average Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1, with low historical odds (~10-20% annually) for Cat 5 U.S. strikes amid steering patterns favoring open ocean tracks. Seismic and volcanic quiet reinforces skin-in-the-game sentiment, though rapid shifts in tropical activity or rare geophysical extremes could alter probabilities ahead of year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$191,118
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 70.5% for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through early April—no magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes per USGS records (recent largest: M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1), no VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, no 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts, and no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA support an average Atlantic hurricane season starting June 1, with low historical odds (~10-20% annually) for Cat 5 U.S. strikes amid steering patterns favoring open ocean tracks. Seismic and volcanic quiet reinforces skin-in-the-game sentiment, though rapid shifts in tropical activity or rare geophysical extremes could alter probabilities ahead of year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$191,118
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年的自然災害？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年會有自然災害嗎？" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 30¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年的自然災害？" has generated $191.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年的自然災害？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年的自然災害？" is "2026年會有自然災害嗎？" at 30%, meaning the market assigns a 30% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年的自然災害？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.