Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42% chance of a natural bolide exploding in Earth's atmosphere with >=5 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, reflecting NASA CNEOS satellite data showing such events occur roughly once per year globally—though detection is biased toward landmasses, with many over oceans undetected. Early 2026's surge in fireball reports, highlighted by the American Meteor Society's Q1 tally of elevated large events including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.37 kt causing ground-level booms), has boosted Yes odds without a qualifying strike, as CNEOS lists no 2026 impacts from tracked near-Earth objects. Ongoing sensor monitoring by NASA/USGS could shift probabilities with new detections before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$276,803 交易量
$276,803 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$276,803 交易量
$276,803 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42% chance of a natural bolide exploding in Earth's atmosphere with >=5 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, reflecting NASA CNEOS satellite data showing such events occur roughly once per year globally—though detection is biased toward landmasses, with many over oceans undetected. Early 2026's surge in fireball reports, highlighted by the American Meteor Society's Q1 tally of elevated large events including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.37 kt causing ground-level booms), has boosted Yes odds without a qualifying strike, as CNEOS lists no 2026 impacts from tracked near-Earth objects. Ongoing sensor monitoring by NASA/USGS could shift probabilities with new detections before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$276,803結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42% chance of a natural bolide exploding in Earth's atmosphere with >=5 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, reflecting NASA CNEOS satellite data showing such events occur roughly once per year globally—though detection is biased toward landmasses, with many over oceans undetected. Early 2026's surge in fireball reports, highlighted by the American Meteor Society's Q1 tally of elevated large events including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.37 kt causing ground-level booms), has boosted Yes odds without a qualifying strike, as CNEOS lists no 2026 impacts from tracked near-Earth objects. Ongoing sensor monitoring by NASA/USGS could shift probabilities with new detections before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$276,803結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 42% chance of a natural bolide exploding in Earth's atmosphere with >=5 kilotons TNT equivalent energy in 2026, reflecting NASA CNEOS satellite data showing such events occur roughly once per year globally—though detection is biased toward landmasses, with many over oceans undetected. Early 2026's surge in fireball reports, highlighted by the American Meteor Society's Q1 tally of elevated large events including the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.37 kt causing ground-level booms), has boosted Yes odds without a qualifying strike, as CNEOS lists no 2026 impacts from tracked near-Earth objects. Ongoing sensor monitoring by NASA/USGS could shift probabilities with new detections before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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