Trader consensus on an 89.5% implied probability for no major volcano eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through early April 2026 document 40–45 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all minor (VEI ≤4) with low-altitude ash plumes, lava flows, and no escalation to explosive phases; alerts remain at YELLOW/ADVISORY or ORANGE/WATCH for effusive activity at sites like Great Sitkin and Kīlauea. No caldera systems or stratovolcanoes show inflation, high seismicity, or gas emissions indicative of plinian-scale buildup, reinforcing the low baseline risk amid comprehensive seismic and satellite monitoring. Weekly updates from observatories will track any shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$38,024 交易量
$38,024 交易量
2027-03-31
是
$38,024 交易量
$38,024 交易量
2027-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on an 89.5% implied probability for no major volcano eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through early April 2026 document 40–45 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all minor (VEI ≤4) with low-altitude ash plumes, lava flows, and no escalation to explosive phases; alerts remain at YELLOW/ADVISORY or ORANGE/WATCH for effusive activity at sites like Great Sitkin and Kīlauea. No caldera systems or stratovolcanoes show inflation, high seismicity, or gas emissions indicative of plinian-scale buildup, reinforcing the low baseline risk amid comprehensive seismic and satellite monitoring. Weekly updates from observatories will track any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$38,024結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on an 89.5% implied probability for no major volcano eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through early April 2026 document 40–45 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all minor (VEI ≤4) with low-altitude ash plumes, lava flows, and no escalation to explosive phases; alerts remain at YELLOW/ADVISORY or ORANGE/WATCH for effusive activity at sites like Great Sitkin and Kīlauea. No caldera systems or stratovolcanoes show inflation, high seismicity, or gas emissions indicative of plinian-scale buildup, reinforcing the low baseline risk amid comprehensive seismic and satellite monitoring. Weekly updates from observatories will track any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$38,024結束日期
2027-03-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 89.5% implied probability for no major volcano eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50–100 years, with the last confirmed VEI 6 at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. USGS Volcano Hazards Program and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program reports through early April 2026 document 40–45 ongoing eruptions worldwide, all minor (VEI ≤4) with low-altitude ash plumes, lava flows, and no escalation to explosive phases; alerts remain at YELLOW/ADVISORY or ORANGE/WATCH for effusive activity at sites like Great Sitkin and Kīlauea. No caldera systems or stratovolcanoes show inflation, high seismicity, or gas emissions indicative of plinian-scale buildup, reinforcing the low baseline risk amid comprehensive seismic and satellite monitoring. Weekly updates from observatories will track any shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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