Traders' overwhelming consensus (95.5% implied probability) for an 80–85 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate per 100,000 population in Week 13 reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data showing 82.7 per 100,000 through Week 12 (ending March 28), up just 1.1 from Week 11's 81.6 amid sharply declining activity. Weekly rates fell to 0.8 per 100,000 (nowcast 1.0–1.4), with influenza-like illness at 2.6% nationally—below the 3.1% baseline—and low influenza A(H3N2) test positivity signaling the 2025–2026 season's taper. This moderate-to-high severity season ranks third-highest cumulative since 2010–11, but late-spring dynamics historically limit additions. Realistic challenges include reporting lags or unforeseen regional surges, though minimal transmission favors stability; CDC's Week 13 FluView, due next week, will confirm.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 13, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 13, 2026?
80–85 96%
85–90 2.0%
<70 1.7%
75–80 1.1%
<70
2%
70–75
1%
75–80
1%
80–85
96%
85–90
2%
90+
1%
80–85 96%
85–90 2.0%
<70 1.7%
75–80 1.1%
<70
2%
70–75
1%
75–80
1%
80–85
96%
85–90
2%
90+
1%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
市場開放時間: Apr 3, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' overwhelming consensus (95.5% implied probability) for an 80–85 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate per 100,000 population in Week 13 reflects CDC FluSurv-NET data showing 82.7 per 100,000 through Week 12 (ending March 28), up just 1.1 from Week 11's 81.6 amid sharply declining activity. Weekly rates fell to 0.8 per 100,000 (nowcast 1.0–1.4), with influenza-like illness at 2.6% nationally—below the 3.1% baseline—and low influenza A(H3N2) test positivity signaling the 2025–2026 season's taper. This moderate-to-high severity season ranks third-highest cumulative since 2010–11, but late-spring dynamics historically limit additions. Realistic challenges include reporting lags or unforeseen regional surges, though minimal transmission favors stability; CDC's Week 13 FluView, due next week, will confirm.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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