Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in London on April 5?
Highest temperature in London on April 5?
13°C 35%
12°C 29%
14°C 18%
15°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
4%
11°C
8%
12°C
29%
13°C
35%
14°C
18%
15°C
13%
16°C
5%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 35%
12°C 29%
14°C 18%
15°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-04-05
8°C or below
$403 交易量
<1%
9°C
$416 交易量
<1%
10°C
$191 交易量
4%
11°C
$311 交易量
8%
12°C
$345 交易量
29%
13°C
$386 交易量
35%
14°C
$352 交易量
18%
15°C
$320 交易量
13%
16°C
$274 交易量
5%
17°C
$140 交易量
1%
18°C or higher
$421 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
交易量
$3,560結束日期
2026-04-05市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$3,560結束日期
2026-04-05市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 6:01 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering around 12–13°C for London's highest temperature on April 5, with 13°C leading at 34.5% implied probability amid genuine uncertainty from variable cloud cover and breezy conditions. The Met Office's latest 5-day outlook indicates rain clearing southeastwards through early April, transitioning to brighter spells by Sunday, but patchy low cloud and moderate westerly winds could suppress peaks to 12°C or allow 13–14°C under sunnier scenarios. This aligns with early April climatology—historical highs averaging 13°C at Heathrow—following March's anomalous warmth above 19°C. Ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS show minimal spread, though daily updates may refine odds as the frontal boundary evolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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