Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 5, with NOAA GFS and ensemble guidance diverging on the timing and strength of a potential cold front approaching Central Texas amid an active early spring pattern. Outcomes like 55°F or below (25%) and 74°F or higher (25%) capture tail risks from a stalled frontal boundary bringing clouds, precipitation, and cooler highs in the low 60s, versus a faster-moving system allowing sunny skies and near-average highs around 78°F per historical April 5 norms at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Mid-range bins (66-67°F at 18%, 60-61°F at 17%) dominate due to model spread, with climatological volatility amplified by variable jet stream positioning. Key differentiators include frontal stall potential and cloud cover impacts; watch daily National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio updates and new GFS/European model runs through April 3-4 for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Austin on April 5?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 5?
70-71°F 23%
68-69°F 22%
58-59°F 19%
72-73°F 18%
55°F or below
2%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
16%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
23%
72-73°F
18%
74°F or higher
11%
70-71°F 23%
68-69°F 22%
58-59°F 19%
72-73°F 18%
55°F or below
2%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
16%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
23%
72-73°F
18%
74°F or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 1, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Austin's highest temperature on April 5, with NOAA GFS and ensemble guidance diverging on the timing and strength of a potential cold front approaching Central Texas amid an active early spring pattern. Outcomes like 55°F or below (25%) and 74°F or higher (25%) capture tail risks from a stalled frontal boundary bringing clouds, precipitation, and cooler highs in the low 60s, versus a faster-moving system allowing sunny skies and near-average highs around 78°F per historical April 5 norms at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Mid-range bins (66-67°F at 18%, 60-61°F at 17%) dominate due to model spread, with climatological volatility amplified by variable jet stream positioning. Key differentiators include frontal stall potential and cloud cover impacts; watch daily National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio updates and new GFS/European model runs through April 3-4 for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions