Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 49% probability of 78°F or higher at San Francisco International Airport on April 5, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast models—GFS and ECMWF—projecting a high-pressure ridge and offshore flow from the SFO-WMC pressure gradient shifting negative, suppressing persistent marine stratus and allowing adiabatic warming aloft. This follows March 2026's record warmth, with averages 10–15°F above normal amid persistent ridging, and NOAA's April outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across coastal California. Current unsettled pattern with rain through April 2 gives way to sunnier conditions by weekend, though model ensembles show some spread, with marine layer persistence as key uncertainty; daily updates expected through April 4 could refine odds near climatological April highs of 63°F.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 5?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 5?
78°F or higher 49%
76-77°F 24%
74-75°F 21%
72-73°F 10%
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
24%
78°F or higher
49%
78°F or higher 49%
76-77°F 24%
74-75°F 21%
72-73°F 10%
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
24%
78°F or higher
49%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 1, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 49% probability of 78°F or higher at San Francisco International Airport on April 5, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast models—GFS and ECMWF—projecting a high-pressure ridge and offshore flow from the SFO-WMC pressure gradient shifting negative, suppressing persistent marine stratus and allowing adiabatic warming aloft. This follows March 2026's record warmth, with averages 10–15°F above normal amid persistent ridging, and NOAA's April outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across coastal California. Current unsettled pattern with rain through April 2 gives way to sunnier conditions by weekend, though model ensembles show some spread, with marine layer persistence as key uncertainty; daily updates expected through April 4 could refine odds near climatological April highs of 63°F.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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