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氣候與科學·科學

2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？

Market icon
氣候與科學·科學

2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？

4月 10

5月 10

4月 10

5月 10

第4熱或更低 98.9%

有史以來最熱 <1%

第3熱 <1%

第二熱 <1%

Polymarket

$279,343 交易量

第4熱或更低 98.9%

有史以來最熱 <1%

第3熱 <1%

第二熱 <1%

Polymarket

$279,343 交易量

有史以來最熱

$98,214 交易量

<1%

第二熱

$54,289 交易量

<1%

第3熱

$96,197 交易量

<1%

第4熱或更低

$30,643 交易量

99%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service confirm that global surface air temperatures on March 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, 2026, produced anomalies ranking outside the all-time top three daily records, primarily held by extreme El Niño-fueled days in 2023-2024. This positions the hottest among those three days as 4th or lower, driving the market's 98.9% implied probability on that outcome as trader consensus reflects real-money alignment with observational evidence. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from prior La Niña-like cool equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures suppressed intensities below recent peaks, mirroring January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest months on record per NOAA and Berkeley Earth. Official monthly bulletins due mid-April could refine rankings, but substantial upward revisions are rare; only major reanalysis corrections from unreported marine heat would challenge this.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$279,343
結束日期
2026-04-10
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service confirm that global surface air temperatures on March 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, 2026, produced anomalies ranking outside the all-time top three daily records, primarily held by extreme El Niño-fueled days in 2023-2024. This positions the hottest among those three days as 4th or lower, driving the market's 98.9% implied probability on that outcome as trader consensus reflects real-money alignment with observational evidence. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from prior La Niña-like cool equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures suppressed intensities below recent peaks, mirroring January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest months on record per NOAA and Berkeley Earth. Official monthly bulletins due mid-April could refine rankings, but substantial upward revisions are rare; only major reanalysis corrections from unreported marine heat would challenge this.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$279,343
結束日期
2026-04-10
市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "第4熱或更低" at 99%, followed by "有史以來最熱" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" has generated $279.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" is "第4熱或更低" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "有史以來最熱" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年3月1日、2日、3日最熱？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.