Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (32% implied probability), aligning closely with the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 16 per year, as four such events have already struck in the first quarter—Malaysia (Feb. 22, M7.0), Tonga (Mar. 24, M7.5), Vanuatu (Mar. 30, M7.3), and Indonesia (Apr. 1, M7.4)—primarily along active subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. This early pace matches historical norms under a Poisson distribution of seismicity, where annual counts typically fluctuate between 10 and 23 without predictable trends or human-induced increases, per USGS data. Lower bins like 11–13 (22.5%) reflect potential quiescence in other fault systems, while 17–19 (21.5%) accounts for possible clustering; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine trader sentiment amid inherent seismic uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於14–16 32%
11–13 23%
17–19 22%
20+ 15.6%
$1,138,374 交易量
$1,138,374 交易量
2026-12-31
少於5次
2%
5–7
2%
8–10
5%
11–13
23%
14–16
32%
17–19
22%
20+
16%
14–16 32%
11–13 23%
17–19 22%
20+ 15.6%
$1,138,374 交易量
$1,138,374 交易量
2026-12-31
少於5次
$164,917 交易量
2%
5–7
$65,185 交易量
2%
8–10
$123,502 交易量
5%
11–13
$381,154 交易量
23%
14–16
$151,603 交易量
32%
17–19
$198,907 交易量
22%
20+
$53,105 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (32% implied probability), aligning closely with the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 16 per year, as four such events have already struck in the first quarter—Malaysia (Feb. 22, M7.0), Tonga (Mar. 24, M7.5), Vanuatu (Mar. 30, M7.3), and Indonesia (Apr. 1, M7.4)—primarily along active subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. This early pace matches historical norms under a Poisson distribution of seismicity, where annual counts typically fluctuate between 10 and 23 without predictable trends or human-induced increases, per USGS data. Lower bins like 11–13 (22.5%) reflect potential quiescence in other fault systems, while 17–19 (21.5%) accounts for possible clustering; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine trader sentiment amid inherent seismic uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
交易量
$1,138,374結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (32% implied probability), aligning closely with the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 16 per year, as four such events have already struck in the first quarter—Malaysia (Feb. 22, M7.0), Tonga (Mar. 24, M7.5), Vanuatu (Mar. 30, M7.3), and Indonesia (Apr. 1, M7.4)—primarily along active subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. This early pace matches historical norms under a Poisson distribution of seismicity, where annual counts typically fluctuate between 10 and 23 without predictable trends or human-induced increases, per USGS data. Lower bins like 11–13 (22.5%) reflect potential quiescence in other fault systems, while 17–19 (21.5%) accounts for possible clustering; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine trader sentiment amid inherent seismic uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$1,138,374結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (32% implied probability), aligning closely with the U.S. Geological Survey's long-term global average of about 16 per year, as four such events have already struck in the first quarter—Malaysia (Feb. 22, M7.0), Tonga (Mar. 24, M7.5), Vanuatu (Mar. 30, M7.3), and Indonesia (Apr. 1, M7.4)—primarily along active subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire. This early pace matches historical norms under a Poisson distribution of seismicity, where annual counts typically fluctuate between 10 and 23 without predictable trends or human-induced increases, per USGS data. Lower bins like 11–13 (22.5%) reflect potential quiescence in other fault systems, while 17–19 (21.5%) accounts for possible clustering; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine trader sentiment amid inherent seismic uncertainty.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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