Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors a 23°C high in Chengdu on April 4 at 21.5% implied probability, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 22–25°C amid spring variability in the Sichuan Basin. Differing outcomes hinge on cloud cover and convective activity—persistent stratus clouds common in early April suppress insolation and cap peaks near 21–23°C, while clearer skies or reduced frontal influences could push toward 27–29°C as seen in recent March warm spells. Historical April 4 highs average 22°C, with daytime maxima ranging 19–26°C. Uncertainty persists due to model divergences on upper-air patterns; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and afternoon satellite imagery for shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
23°C 22%
29°C 16%
27°C 16%
21°C or below 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
15%
22°C
15%
23°C
22%
24°C
10%
25°C
14%
26°C
12%
27°C
16%
28°C
16%
29°C
16%
30°C
14%
31°C or higher
4%
23°C 22%
29°C 16%
27°C 16%
21°C or below 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
$10 交易量
15%
22°C
$10 交易量
15%
23°C
$10 交易量
22%
24°C
$11 交易量
10%
25°C
$10 交易量
14%
26°C
$10 交易量
12%
27°C
$10 交易量
16%
28°C
$21 交易量
16%
29°C
$30 交易量
16%
30°C
$10 交易量
14%
31°C or higher
$163 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors a 23°C high in Chengdu on April 4 at 21.5% implied probability, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 22–25°C amid spring variability in the Sichuan Basin. Differing outcomes hinge on cloud cover and convective activity—persistent stratus clouds common in early April suppress insolation and cap peaks near 21–23°C, while clearer skies or reduced frontal influences could push toward 27–29°C as seen in recent March warm spells. Historical April 4 highs average 22°C, with daytime maxima ranging 19–26°C. Uncertainty persists due to model divergences on upper-air patterns; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and afternoon satellite imagery for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
交易量
$295結束日期
Apr 4, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors a 23°C high in Chengdu on April 4 at 21.5% implied probability, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 22–25°C amid spring variability in the Sichuan Basin. Differing outcomes hinge on cloud cover and convective activity—persistent stratus clouds common in early April suppress insolation and cap peaks near 21–23°C, while clearer skies or reduced frontal influences could push toward 27–29°C as seen in recent March warm spells. Historical April 4 highs average 22°C, with daytime maxima ranging 19–26°C. Uncertainty persists due to model divergences on upper-air patterns; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and afternoon satellite imagery for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$295結束日期
Apr 4, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors a 23°C high in Chengdu on April 4 at 21.5% implied probability, reflecting ensemble forecast guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 22–25°C amid spring variability in the Sichuan Basin. Differing outcomes hinge on cloud cover and convective activity—persistent stratus clouds common in early April suppress insolation and cap peaks near 21–23°C, while clearer skies or reduced frontal influences could push toward 27–29°C as seen in recent March warm spells. Historical April 4 highs average 22°C, with daytime maxima ranging 19–26°C. Uncertainty persists due to model divergences on upper-air patterns; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and afternoon satellite imagery for shifts ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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