Trader sentiment for NYC's highest temperature on March 29 clusters tightly around 47-51°F, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing a high near 50°F at Central Park amid a cool nor'easter aftermath, with partial cloud cover and northwest winds capping warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly—GFS ensembles skew 1-2°F warmer at 51-52°F, while Euro leans cooler toward 48°F—reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and lingering cold air advection from recent frontal passage. Historical late-March baselines average 52°F, but this setup's marine influence and jet stream dip favor the lower cluster, explaining the neck-and-neck probabilities and low odds for extremes above 60°F. Key watch: evening model updates could shift odds as diurnal heating resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on March 29?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 29?
50-51°F 27%
52-53°F 20%
54-55°F 18%
56-57°F 16%
47°F or below
16%
48-49°F
16%
50-51°F
27%
52-53°F
20%
54-55°F
18%
56-57°F
16%
58-59°F
15%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
7%
66°F or higher
2%
50-51°F 27%
52-53°F 20%
54-55°F 18%
56-57°F 16%
47°F or below
16%
48-49°F
16%
50-51°F
27%
52-53°F
20%
54-55°F
18%
56-57°F
16%
58-59°F
15%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
7%
66°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for NYC's highest temperature on March 29 clusters tightly around 47-51°F, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast pinpointing a high near 50°F at Central Park amid a cool nor'easter aftermath, with partial cloud cover and northwest winds capping warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly—GFS ensembles skew 1-2°F warmer at 51-52°F, while Euro leans cooler toward 48°F—reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and lingering cold air advection from recent frontal passage. Historical late-March baselines average 52°F, but this setup's marine influence and jet stream dip favor the lower cluster, explaining the neck-and-neck probabilities and low odds for extremes above 60°F. Key watch: evening model updates could shift odds as diurnal heating resolves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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