Current Polymarket odds heavily favor a NYC high of 60-61°F on March 27 (27.5% implied probability), aligning with the National Weather Service's pinpoint forecast of 61°F at Central Park amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting southerly flow and above-normal temperatures (+6°F anomaly over the 54°F climatological average). Leading alternatives like 58-59°F (19.5%) and 62-63°F (15.5%) hinge on boundary layer mixing efficiency and a weak frontal timing: delayed cold front passage boosts peaks toward 62-63°F via enhanced insolation, while earlier arrival suppresses via cloud cover and northerlies. GFS ensembles trend slightly warmer than ECMWF, but convergence narrows spread; 12Z model runs will clarify trader edges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on March 27?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 27?
60-61°F 28%
58-59°F 20%
62-63°F 15%
56-57°F 12%
$14,527 交易量
$14,527 交易量
49°F或以下
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
3%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
12%
58-59°F
20%
60-61°F
28%
62-63°F
15%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
6%
68°F or higher
3%
60-61°F 28%
58-59°F 20%
62-63°F 15%
56-57°F 12%
$14,527 交易量
$14,527 交易量
49°F或以下
1%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
3%
54-55°F
5%
56-57°F
12%
58-59°F
20%
60-61°F
28%
62-63°F
15%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
6%
68°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current Polymarket odds heavily favor a NYC high of 60-61°F on March 27 (27.5% implied probability), aligning with the National Weather Service's pinpoint forecast of 61°F at Central Park amid a strengthening upper-level ridge promoting southerly flow and above-normal temperatures (+6°F anomaly over the 54°F climatological average). Leading alternatives like 58-59°F (19.5%) and 62-63°F (15.5%) hinge on boundary layer mixing efficiency and a weak frontal timing: delayed cold front passage boosts peaks toward 62-63°F via enhanced insolation, while earlier arrival suppresses via cloud cover and northerlies. GFS ensembles trend slightly warmer than ECMWF, but convergence narrows spread; 12Z model runs will clarify trader edges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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