Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of trader odds around 8-12°C for Ankara's highest temperature on March 29, with 9°C and 10°C edging ahead at 19.5% and 18.5% implied probabilities. Recent runs show peaks of 9-11°C under a northerly flow advecting cooler continental air, partial cloud cover limiting insolation, and weak diurnal heating—factors differentiating these from warmer 12-13°C outcomes reliant on clearer skies. Historical March 29 highs average 12°C, but current synoptic patterns favor below-normal temps; Turkish MGM's afternoon update may refine this volatile forecast spread.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Ankara on March 29?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 29?
10°C 19%
9°C 19%
8°C 18%
11°C 17%
4°C or below
2%
5°C
9%
6°C
9%
7°C
15%
8°C
18%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
14%
14°C or higher
3%
10°C 19%
9°C 19%
8°C 18%
11°C 17%
4°C or below
2%
5°C
9%
6°C
9%
7°C
15%
8°C
18%
9°C
19%
10°C
19%
11°C
17%
12°C
17%
13°C
14%
14°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of trader odds around 8-12°C for Ankara's highest temperature on March 29, with 9°C and 10°C edging ahead at 19.5% and 18.5% implied probabilities. Recent runs show peaks of 9-11°C under a northerly flow advecting cooler continental air, partial cloud cover limiting insolation, and weak diurnal heating—factors differentiating these from warmer 12-13°C outcomes reliant on clearer skies. Historical March 29 highs average 12°C, but current synoptic patterns favor below-normal temps; Turkish MGM's afternoon update may refine this volatile forecast spread.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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