NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists only two negligible potential impacts in 2026 from tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with probabilities below 0.004% and Torino Scale 0 ratings, far too small or improbable to reach 100 kiloton airburst energy equivalent to the Chelyabinsk event scaled down. This drives the 92.8% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader confidence in comprehensive NEO surveys like Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE that detect over 95% of objects larger than 140 meters and most 20-50 meter bolides capable of such energy. Recent safe flybys, including bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, reinforce stability. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid on a precise trajectory, discoverable via ongoing radar like Goldstone or Arecibo follow-ups through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists only two negligible potential impacts in 2026 from tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with probabilities below 0.004% and Torino Scale 0 ratings, far too small or improbable to reach 100 kiloton airburst energy equivalent to the Chelyabinsk event scaled down. This drives the 92.8% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader confidence in comprehensive NEO surveys like Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE that detect over 95% of objects larger than 140 meters and most 20-50 meter bolides capable of such energy. Recent safe flybys, including bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, reinforce stability. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid on a precise trajectory, discoverable via ongoing radar like Goldstone or Arecibo follow-ups through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$6,285結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists only two negligible potential impacts in 2026 from tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with probabilities below 0.004% and Torino Scale 0 ratings, far too small or improbable to reach 100 kiloton airburst energy equivalent to the Chelyabinsk event scaled down. This drives the 92.8% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader confidence in comprehensive NEO surveys like Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE that detect over 95% of objects larger than 140 meters and most 20-50 meter bolides capable of such energy. Recent safe flybys, including bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, reinforce stability. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid on a precise trajectory, discoverable via ongoing radar like Goldstone or Arecibo follow-ups through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$6,285結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists only two negligible potential impacts in 2026 from tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—with probabilities below 0.004% and Torino Scale 0 ratings, far too small or improbable to reach 100 kiloton airburst energy equivalent to the Chelyabinsk event scaled down. This drives the 92.8% market-implied probability for "No," reflecting trader confidence in comprehensive NEO surveys like Pan-STARRS and NEOWISE that detect over 95% of objects larger than 140 meters and most 20-50 meter bolides capable of such energy. Recent safe flybys, including bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, reinforce stability. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid on a precise trajectory, discoverable via ongoing radar like Goldstone or Arecibo follow-ups through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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