The overwhelming 95.9% market-implied probability against a 100kt meteor strike in 2026 reflects the extremely low statistical frequency of such impacts, derived from decades of near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and equivalent international programs. No catalogued asteroids or comets currently show trajectories intersecting Earth during that year, and detection completeness for objects energetic enough to produce 100 kilotons—roughly 10–20 meters in diameter—is high enough that undiscovered threats remain improbable. Historical impact-rate models place events of this scale on timescales of decades to centuries globally, with 2026 falling well within normal background rates absent new detections. Continuous telescope monitoring and upcoming survey data releases could still identify rare long-period comets or revise orbital solutions, though any such shift would require substantial new observational evidence to meaningfully alter trader assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The overwhelming 95.9% market-implied probability against a 100kt meteor strike in 2026 reflects the extremely low statistical frequency of such impacts, derived from decades of near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and equivalent international programs. No catalogued asteroids or comets currently show trajectories intersecting Earth during that year, and detection completeness for objects energetic enough to produce 100 kilotons—roughly 10–20 meters in diameter—is high enough that undiscovered threats remain improbable. Historical impact-rate models place events of this scale on timescales of decades to centuries globally, with 2026 falling well within normal background rates absent new detections. Continuous telescope monitoring and upcoming survey data releases could still identify rare long-period comets or revise orbital solutions, though any such shift would require substantial new observational evidence to meaningfully alter trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$7,871結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The overwhelming 95.9% market-implied probability against a 100kt meteor strike in 2026 reflects the extremely low statistical frequency of such impacts, derived from decades of near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and equivalent international programs. No catalogued asteroids or comets currently show trajectories intersecting Earth during that year, and detection completeness for objects energetic enough to produce 100 kilotons—roughly 10–20 meters in diameter—is high enough that undiscovered threats remain improbable. Historical impact-rate models place events of this scale on timescales of decades to centuries globally, with 2026 falling well within normal background rates absent new detections. Continuous telescope monitoring and upcoming survey data releases could still identify rare long-period comets or revise orbital solutions, though any such shift would require substantial new observational evidence to meaningfully alter trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$7,871結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming 95.9% market-implied probability against a 100kt meteor strike in 2026 reflects the extremely low statistical frequency of such impacts, derived from decades of near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and equivalent international programs. No catalogued asteroids or comets currently show trajectories intersecting Earth during that year, and detection completeness for objects energetic enough to produce 100 kilotons—roughly 10–20 meters in diameter—is high enough that undiscovered threats remain improbable. Historical impact-rate models place events of this scale on timescales of decades to centuries globally, with 2026 falling well within normal background rates absent new detections. Continuous telescope monitoring and upcoming survey data releases could still identify rare long-period comets or revise orbital solutions, though any such shift would require substantial new observational evidence to meaningfully alter trader assessments.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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