Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which lists only two negligible-risk objects—2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ—with impact probabilities below 0.004% for the year. The first quarter of 2026 has seen a surge in detected fireballs, including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston, but none approached the 10 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe close approaches, like car-sized 2026 FM3 on March 25, underscore advanced NEO tracking efficacy from telescopes and planetary defense tech like DART. Ongoing monitoring through December remains key, though undetected small bolides pose tail risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$140,060 交易量
$140,060 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$140,060 交易量
$140,060 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which lists only two negligible-risk objects—2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ—with impact probabilities below 0.004% for the year. The first quarter of 2026 has seen a surge in detected fireballs, including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston, but none approached the 10 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe close approaches, like car-sized 2026 FM3 on March 25, underscore advanced NEO tracking efficacy from telescopes and planetary defense tech like DART. Ongoing monitoring through December remains key, though undetected small bolides pose tail risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$140,060結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which lists only two negligible-risk objects—2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ—with impact probabilities below 0.004% for the year. The first quarter of 2026 has seen a surge in detected fireballs, including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston, but none approached the 10 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe close approaches, like car-sized 2026 FM3 on March 25, underscore advanced NEO tracking efficacy from telescopes and planetary defense tech like DART. Ongoing monitoring through December remains key, though undetected small bolides pose tail risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$140,060結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which lists only two negligible-risk objects—2013 TP4 and 2023 BZ—with impact probabilities below 0.004% for the year. The first quarter of 2026 has seen a surge in detected fireballs, including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston, but none approached the 10 kt threshold per CNEOS fireball data. Recent safe close approaches, like car-sized 2026 FM3 on March 25, underscore advanced NEO tracking efficacy from telescopes and planetary defense tech like DART. Ongoing monitoring through December remains key, though undetected small bolides pose tail risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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