No known near-Earth objects carry meaningful collision risk for 2026 according to NASA’s Sentry monitoring and ESA tracking systems, supporting the market’s 87.5% implied probability for no 10kt+ strike. Continuous optical surveys and the upcoming Vera C. Rubin telescope plus NEO Surveyor mission have expanded detection of meter-scale objects without identifying any on impact trajectories, while small fireball upticks reflect routine atmospheric entries rather than larger threats. Planetary defense efforts like the Hera rendezvous further underscore stable risk assessment, with trader consensus reflecting the low baseline annual frequency of such events absent new detections that could shift odds before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$164,959 交易量
$164,959 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$164,959 交易量
$164,959 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects carry meaningful collision risk for 2026 according to NASA’s Sentry monitoring and ESA tracking systems, supporting the market’s 87.5% implied probability for no 10kt+ strike. Continuous optical surveys and the upcoming Vera C. Rubin telescope plus NEO Surveyor mission have expanded detection of meter-scale objects without identifying any on impact trajectories, while small fireball upticks reflect routine atmospheric entries rather than larger threats. Planetary defense efforts like the Hera rendezvous further underscore stable risk assessment, with trader consensus reflecting the low baseline annual frequency of such events absent new detections that could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$164,959結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects carry meaningful collision risk for 2026 according to NASA’s Sentry monitoring and ESA tracking systems, supporting the market’s 87.5% implied probability for no 10kt+ strike. Continuous optical surveys and the upcoming Vera C. Rubin telescope plus NEO Surveyor mission have expanded detection of meter-scale objects without identifying any on impact trajectories, while small fireball upticks reflect routine atmospheric entries rather than larger threats. Planetary defense efforts like the Hera rendezvous further underscore stable risk assessment, with trader consensus reflecting the low baseline annual frequency of such events absent new detections that could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$164,959結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects carry meaningful collision risk for 2026 according to NASA’s Sentry monitoring and ESA tracking systems, supporting the market’s 87.5% implied probability for no 10kt+ strike. Continuous optical surveys and the upcoming Vera C. Rubin telescope plus NEO Surveyor mission have expanded detection of meter-scale objects without identifying any on impact trajectories, while small fireball upticks reflect routine atmospheric entries rather than larger threats. Planetary defense efforts like the Hera rendezvous further underscore stable risk assessment, with trader consensus reflecting the low baseline annual frequency of such events absent new detections that could shift odds before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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