Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four have struck the continental U.S. since 1851 (Labor Day Hurricane in 1935, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none reached U.S. hurricane landfall, with steering patterns and weakening before coastlines sparing the mainland. For the 2026 season starting June 1, NOAA and model consensus anticipate average activity amid a likely shift to ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditions, which typically suppress Atlantic formation and intensification. NHC updates expected in May will refine outlooks, though rapid intensification near land remains a key uncertainty factor.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$117,034 交易量
$117,034 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$117,034 交易量
$117,034 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four have struck the continental U.S. since 1851 (Labor Day Hurricane in 1935, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none reached U.S. hurricane landfall, with steering patterns and weakening before coastlines sparing the mainland. For the 2026 season starting June 1, NOAA and model consensus anticipate average activity amid a likely shift to ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditions, which typically suppress Atlantic formation and intensification. NHC updates expected in May will refine outlooks, though rapid intensification near land remains a key uncertainty factor.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$117,034結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four have struck the continental U.S. since 1851 (Labor Day Hurricane in 1935, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none reached U.S. hurricane landfall, with steering patterns and weakening before coastlines sparing the mainland. For the 2026 season starting June 1, NOAA and model consensus anticipate average activity amid a likely shift to ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditions, which typically suppress Atlantic formation and intensification. NHC updates expected in May will refine outlooks, though rapid intensification near land remains a key uncertainty factor.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$117,034結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability for no Category 5 hurricane—defined on the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds of 157 mph or higher—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four have struck the continental U.S. since 1851 (Labor Day Hurricane in 1935, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018), averaging less than once per decade despite rising ocean heat content. The 2025 season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) but none reached U.S. hurricane landfall, with steering patterns and weakening before coastlines sparing the mainland. For the 2026 season starting June 1, NOAA and model consensus anticipate average activity amid a likely shift to ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño conditions, which typically suppress Atlantic formation and intensification. NHC updates expected in May will refine outlooks, though rapid intensification near land remains a key uncertainty factor.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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