Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the event's historical rarity and subdued 2026 Atlantic season outlooks. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), despite 2025 producing three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that struck Caribbean islands like Jamaica rather than the U.S., underscoring steering patterns and weakening factors before U.S. approach. Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates signal a La Niña-to-El Niño transition by summer 2026, boosting vertical wind shear to suppress intensification, with AccuWeather forecasting just 2-4 major hurricanes amid near-average activity. Warm sea surface temperatures pose upside risk, but new NHC forecast tools announced March 24 highlight uncertainty; NOAA's full outlook due in May could refine probabilities ahead of the June 1 start.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$116,983 交易量
$116,983 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$116,983 交易量
$116,983 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the event's historical rarity and subdued 2026 Atlantic season outlooks. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), despite 2025 producing three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that struck Caribbean islands like Jamaica rather than the U.S., underscoring steering patterns and weakening factors before U.S. approach. Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates signal a La Niña-to-El Niño transition by summer 2026, boosting vertical wind shear to suppress intensification, with AccuWeather forecasting just 2-4 major hurricanes amid near-average activity. Warm sea surface temperatures pose upside risk, but new NHC forecast tools announced March 24 highlight uncertainty; NOAA's full outlook due in May could refine probabilities ahead of the June 1 start.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$116,983結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the event's historical rarity and subdued 2026 Atlantic season outlooks. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), despite 2025 producing three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that struck Caribbean islands like Jamaica rather than the U.S., underscoring steering patterns and weakening factors before U.S. approach. Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates signal a La Niña-to-El Niño transition by summer 2026, boosting vertical wind shear to suppress intensification, with AccuWeather forecasting just 2-4 major hurricanes amid near-average activity. Warm sea surface temperatures pose upside risk, but new NHC forecast tools announced March 24 highlight uncertainty; NOAA's full outlook due in May could refine probabilities ahead of the June 1 start.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$116,983結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by sustained winds over 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. mainland landfall before 2027, driven by the event's historical rarity and subdued 2026 Atlantic season outlooks. Only four such landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), despite 2025 producing three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) that struck Caribbean islands like Jamaica rather than the U.S., underscoring steering patterns and weakening factors before U.S. approach. Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates signal a La Niña-to-El Niño transition by summer 2026, boosting vertical wind shear to suppress intensification, with AccuWeather forecasting just 2-4 major hurricanes amid near-average activity. Warm sea surface temperatures pose upside risk, but new NHC forecast tools announced March 24 highlight uncertainty; NOAA's full outlook due in May could refine probabilities ahead of the June 1 start.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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