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CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

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CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

12月 31

12月 31

13% 機率
Polymarket

$65,746 交易量

13% 機率
Polymarket

$65,746 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at an 87.5% implied probability for the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" health notice by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any such warnings currently and no escalations in recent outbreaks. CDC's highest alert, reserved for extreme risks like massive epidemics or high-mortality pathogens with uncontrollable transmission, has seen no activations in 2026; ongoing international threats such as Ebola (since September 2025) and Marburg (November 2025) remain at Level 2, per CDC listings updated March 24. Recent Level 1 global dengue alert (March 23) and Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reflect routine surveillance without warranting escalation. Traders anticipate stability barring unforeseen surges, with CDC outbreak updates providing key near-term signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$65,746
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at an 87.5% implied probability for the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" health notice by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any such warnings currently and no escalations in recent outbreaks. CDC's highest alert, reserved for extreme risks like massive epidemics or high-mortality pathogens with uncontrollable transmission, has seen no activations in 2026; ongoing international threats such as Ebola (since September 2025) and Marburg (November 2025) remain at Level 2, per CDC listings updated March 24. Recent Level 1 global dengue alert (March 23) and Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reflect routine surveillance without warranting escalation. Traders anticipate stability barring unforeseen surges, with CDC outbreak updates providing key near-term signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$65,746
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "CDC在12月31日前發布第4級警告嗎?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" has generated $65.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" is "CDC在12月31日前發布第4級警告嗎?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.