Trader consensus prices "No" at an 87.5% implied probability for the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" health notice by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any such warnings currently and no escalations in recent outbreaks. CDC's highest alert, reserved for extreme risks like massive epidemics or high-mortality pathogens with uncontrollable transmission, has seen no activations in 2026; ongoing international threats such as Ebola (since September 2025) and Marburg (November 2025) remain at Level 2, per CDC listings updated March 24. Recent Level 1 global dengue alert (March 23) and Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reflect routine surveillance without warranting escalation. Traders anticipate stability barring unforeseen surges, with CDC outbreak updates providing key near-term signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$65,746 交易量
$65,746 交易量
是
$65,746 交易量
$65,746 交易量
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at an 87.5% implied probability for the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" health notice by December 31, driven by the complete absence of any such warnings currently and no escalations in recent outbreaks. CDC's highest alert, reserved for extreme risks like massive epidemics or high-mortality pathogens with uncontrollable transmission, has seen no activations in 2026; ongoing international threats such as Ebola (since September 2025) and Marburg (November 2025) remain at Level 2, per CDC listings updated March 24. Recent Level 1 global dengue alert (March 23) and Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reflect routine surveillance without warranting escalation. Traders anticipate stability barring unforeseen surges, with CDC outbreak updates providing key near-term signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions