Trader consensus leans slightly against a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice—"Reconsider Nonessential Travel"—by December 31, 2026, with "No" at 55% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any active Level 3 alerts and recent issuances limited to Level 1 (global dengue, March 23) and Level 2 (meningococcal disease in DRC, March 24; yellow fever in Venezuela). Despite sustained A(H5N1) bird flu in wild birds and livestock, approximately 370 mpox cases in the US through March, and measles outbreaks (over 2,000 US cases in 2025 mostly outbreak-linked), no international events have met Level 3 criteria of high traveler risk with limited precautions. CDC's recent pause on mpox and bird flu diagnostics amid downsizing has further tempered escalation expectations, though new human transmission data or WHO-designated epidemics could shift odds; monitor weekly surveillance updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$96,256 交易量
$96,256 交易量
是
$96,256 交易量
$96,256 交易量
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans slightly against a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice—"Reconsider Nonessential Travel"—by December 31, 2026, with "No" at 55% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any active Level 3 alerts and recent issuances limited to Level 1 (global dengue, March 23) and Level 2 (meningococcal disease in DRC, March 24; yellow fever in Venezuela). Despite sustained A(H5N1) bird flu in wild birds and livestock, approximately 370 mpox cases in the US through March, and measles outbreaks (over 2,000 US cases in 2025 mostly outbreak-linked), no international events have met Level 3 criteria of high traveler risk with limited precautions. CDC's recent pause on mpox and bird flu diagnostics amid downsizing has further tempered escalation expectations, though new human transmission data or WHO-designated epidemics could shift odds; monitor weekly surveillance updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions