Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—only five have been instrumentally recorded globally since 1900, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. USGS seismic monitoring shows no unusual precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, where full-margin M9 events carry just a 10-15% chance over 50 years, or about 0.4% annually. Recent highlights include July 2025's M8.8 Kamchatka quake—the largest since 2011 but below threshold—and February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability without short-term escalation signals. Continuous USGS global data updates remain key for any shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$173,406 交易量
$173,406 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$173,406 交易量
$173,406 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—only five have been instrumentally recorded globally since 1900, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. USGS seismic monitoring shows no unusual precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, where full-margin M9 events carry just a 10-15% chance over 50 years, or about 0.4% annually. Recent highlights include July 2025's M8.8 Kamchatka quake—the largest since 2011 but below threshold—and February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability without short-term escalation signals. Continuous USGS global data updates remain key for any shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$173,406結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—only five have been instrumentally recorded globally since 1900, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. USGS seismic monitoring shows no unusual precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, where full-margin M9 events carry just a 10-15% chance over 50 years, or about 0.4% annually. Recent highlights include July 2025's M8.8 Kamchatka quake—the largest since 2011 but below threshold—and February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability without short-term escalation signals. Continuous USGS global data updates remain key for any shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$173,406結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—only five have been instrumentally recorded globally since 1900, with none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.0-9.1. USGS seismic monitoring shows no unusual precursors in high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, where full-margin M9 events carry just a 10-15% chance over 50 years, or about 0.4% annually. Recent highlights include July 2025's M8.8 Kamchatka quake—the largest since 2011 but below threshold—and February 2026 Cascadia stress tests revealing fault variability without short-term escalation signals. Continuous USGS global data updates remain key for any shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions