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世界·流行病

2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？

Market icon
世界·流行病

2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$234,995 交易量

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$234,995 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus prices "No" at 84.5% for a new COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, driven by the absence of any SARS-CoV-2 strain meeting WHO criteria for VOC status since Omicron years ago, as confirmed in ECDC's April 13 update listing zero VOCs. Robust global genomic surveillance, including WHO's CoViNet and CDC wastewater monitoring, has tracked rising BA.3.2 ("Cicada") detections in over 30 U.S. states and Europe since late 2025, yet it remains a Variant Under Monitoring due to no evidence of heightened transmissibility, severity, or vaccine evasion beyond population immunity levels. Endemic circulation of Omicron sublineages like XFG and low overall case rates reinforce this stability, with annual vaccine updates mitigating risks through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
交易量
$234,995
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Trader consensus prices "No" at 84.5% for a new COVID-19 variant of concern before 2027, driven by the absence of any SARS-CoV-2 strain meeting WHO criteria for VOC status since Omicron years ago, as confirmed in ECDC's April 13 update listing zero VOCs. Robust global genomic surveillance, including WHO's CoViNet and CDC wastewater monitoring, has tracked rising BA.3.2 ("Cicada") detections in over 30 U.S. states and Europe since late 2025, yet it remains a Variant Under Monitoring due to no evidence of heightened transmissibility, severity, or vaccine evasion beyond population immunity levels. Endemic circulation of Omicron sublineages like XFG and low overall case rates reinforce this stability, with annual vaccine updates mitigating risks through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
交易量
$234,995
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2027年前會出現新的值得關注的新冠變異株嗎？" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" has generated $235K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" is "2027年前會出現新的值得關注的新冠變異株嗎？" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.