Trader consensus implies a 93% probability of no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances amid paused outlooks until May 15. Climatology reinforces this, with only four May hurricanes documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records, as sea surface temperatures and low wind shear typically remain unfavorable before late June. A transitioning La Niña to ENSO-neutral phase further dampens early activity. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid warming in the Caribbean or Gulf leading to quick intensification of a late-May tropical wave, though model consensus shows low near-term risk. Resumed NHC forecasts will provide key updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$36,145 交易量
$36,145 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$36,145 交易量
$36,145 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus implies a 93% probability of no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances amid paused outlooks until May 15. Climatology reinforces this, with only four May hurricanes documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records, as sea surface temperatures and low wind shear typically remain unfavorable before late June. A transitioning La Niña to ENSO-neutral phase further dampens early activity. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid warming in the Caribbean or Gulf leading to quick intensification of a late-May tropical wave, though model consensus shows low near-term risk. Resumed NHC forecasts will provide key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
市場開放時間： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$36,145結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus implies a 93% probability of no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances amid paused outlooks until May 15. Climatology reinforces this, with only four May hurricanes documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records, as sea surface temperatures and low wind shear typically remain unfavorable before late June. A transitioning La Niña to ENSO-neutral phase further dampens early activity. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid warming in the Caribbean or Gulf leading to quick intensification of a late-May tropical wave, though model consensus shows low near-term risk. Resumed NHC forecasts will provide key updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$36,145結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 93% probability of no Atlantic hurricane—defined as sustained winds of 74 mph or higher—forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Discussion confirming zero tropical cyclones or disturbances amid paused outlooks until May 15. Climatology reinforces this, with only four May hurricanes documented since the late 1800s per NOAA records, as sea surface temperatures and low wind shear typically remain unfavorable before late June. A transitioning La Niña to ENSO-neutral phase further dampens early activity. Realistic challenges include anomalous rapid warming in the Caribbean or Gulf leading to quick intensification of a late-May tropical wave, though model consensus shows low near-term risk. Resumed NHC forecasts will provide key updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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