Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 26% across 17–20°C outcomes and slightly lower for cooler bins, driven by divergent global forecast model ensembles at the 5-day horizon. Early April climatology in Shanghai features average highs near 18°C, but daily variability stems from frontal passages, cloud cover suppressing daytime heating, or southerly winds enhancing warmth under high-pressure ridges—as seen in recent late-March mild spells around 18°C. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show means of 18–19°C with spreads exceeding 5°C, while China Meteorological Administration updates highlight potential for showers. Watch daily model refreshes and CMA briefings through April 1 for convergence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 3?
20°C or higher 27%
16°C 26%
17°C 24%
18°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
24%
11°C
12%
12°C
14%
13°C
16%
14°C
17%
15°C
18%
16°C
26%
17°C
24%
18°C
21%
19°C
15%
20°C or higher
27%
20°C or higher 27%
16°C 26%
17°C 24%
18°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
10°C or below
$7 交易量
24%
11°C
$0 交易量
12%
12°C
$5 交易量
14%
13°C
$0 交易量
16%
14°C
$0 交易量
17%
15°C
$0 交易量
18%
16°C
$0 交易量
26%
17°C
$0 交易量
24%
18°C
$0 交易量
21%
19°C
$0 交易量
15%
20°C or higher
$0 交易量
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 26% across 17–20°C outcomes and slightly lower for cooler bins, driven by divergent global forecast model ensembles at the 5-day horizon. Early April climatology in Shanghai features average highs near 18°C, but daily variability stems from frontal passages, cloud cover suppressing daytime heating, or southerly winds enhancing warmth under high-pressure ridges—as seen in recent late-March mild spells around 18°C. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show means of 18–19°C with spreads exceeding 5°C, while China Meteorological Administration updates highlight potential for showers. Watch daily model refreshes and CMA briefings through April 1 for convergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
交易量
$12結束日期
Apr 3, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 26% across 17–20°C outcomes and slightly lower for cooler bins, driven by divergent global forecast model ensembles at the 5-day horizon. Early April climatology in Shanghai features average highs near 18°C, but daily variability stems from frontal passages, cloud cover suppressing daytime heating, or southerly winds enhancing warmth under high-pressure ridges—as seen in recent late-March mild spells around 18°C. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show means of 18–19°C with spreads exceeding 5°C, while China Meteorological Administration updates highlight potential for showers. Watch daily model refreshes and CMA briefings through April 1 for convergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$12結束日期
Apr 3, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 29, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 26% across 17–20°C outcomes and slightly lower for cooler bins, driven by divergent global forecast model ensembles at the 5-day horizon. Early April climatology in Shanghai features average highs near 18°C, but daily variability stems from frontal passages, cloud cover suppressing daytime heating, or southerly winds enhancing warmth under high-pressure ridges—as seen in recent late-March mild spells around 18°C. ECMWF and GFS ensembles show means of 18–19°C with spreads exceeding 5°C, while China Meteorological Administration updates highlight potential for showers. Watch daily model refreshes and CMA briefings through April 1 for convergence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions