Incumbent Republican James Comer dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep-red R+23 partisan leaning—ranking 13th most Republican nationally—and his overwhelming $3.4 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025 over negligible primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby ahead of the May 19 Republican primary. Democrat Drew Williams, the unopposed nominee with just $8,700 cash, faces steep historical barriers in a district that went 73% Republican in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics since January's filing deadline, but scenarios like a Comer scandal, primary upset, health event, or national anti-incumbent wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоKY-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
KY-01 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
92%
Демократическая партия
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$5,727 Объем
92%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican James Comer dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep-red R+23 partisan leaning—ranking 13th most Republican nationally—and his overwhelming $3.4 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025 over negligible primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby ahead of the May 19 Republican primary. Democrat Drew Williams, the unopposed nominee with just $8,700 cash, faces steep historical barriers in a district that went 73% Republican in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics since January's filing deadline, but scenarios like a Comer scandal, primary upset, health event, or national anti-incumbent wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$5,727Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican James Comer dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep-red R+23 partisan leaning—ranking 13th most Republican nationally—and his overwhelming $3.4 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025 over negligible primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby ahead of the May 19 Republican primary. Democrat Drew Williams, the unopposed nominee with just $8,700 cash, faces steep historical barriers in a district that went 73% Republican in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics since January's filing deadline, but scenarios like a Comer scandal, primary upset, health event, or national anti-incumbent wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$5,727Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican James Comer dominates trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Kentucky's 1st Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's deep-red R+23 partisan leaning—ranking 13th most Republican nationally—and his overwhelming $3.4 million cash-on-hand advantage as of late 2025 over negligible primary challengers Penny Arcos, David Sims, and Robert Sutherby ahead of the May 19 Republican primary. Democrat Drew Williams, the unopposed nominee with just $8,700 cash, faces steep historical barriers in a district that went 73% Republican in 2024. No major developments have shifted dynamics since January's filing deadline, but scenarios like a Comer scandal, primary upset, health event, or national anti-incumbent wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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