Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for California's 41st Congressional District House seat, driven by 2025 redistricting under Prop 50 that redrew the district into southeast Los Angeles County—a reliably Democratic area with 45% Democratic voter registration versus 24% Republican. Incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez leads fundraising with over $600,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, outpacing challengers like Hector De La Torre and Shonique Williams, while the sole Republican, Mitch Clemmons, reports no funds raised. The March 6 filing deadline confirmed this lopsided field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Potential shifts include a GOP surge to secure a primary advancement spot, a Democratic scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCA-41 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-41 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
93%
Республиканская партия
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$3,805 Объем
93%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for California's 41st Congressional District House seat, driven by 2025 redistricting under Prop 50 that redrew the district into southeast Los Angeles County—a reliably Democratic area with 45% Democratic voter registration versus 24% Republican. Incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez leads fundraising with over $600,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, outpacing challengers like Hector De La Torre and Shonique Williams, while the sole Republican, Mitch Clemmons, reports no funds raised. The March 6 filing deadline confirmed this lopsided field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Potential shifts include a GOP surge to secure a primary advancement spot, a Democratic scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Объем
$3,805Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for California's 41st Congressional District House seat, driven by 2025 redistricting under Prop 50 that redrew the district into southeast Los Angeles County—a reliably Democratic area with 45% Democratic voter registration versus 24% Republican. Incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez leads fundraising with over $600,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, outpacing challengers like Hector De La Torre and Shonique Williams, while the sole Republican, Mitch Clemmons, reports no funds raised. The March 6 filing deadline confirmed this lopsided field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Potential shifts include a GOP surge to secure a primary advancement spot, a Democratic scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$3,805Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92% implied probability for California's 41st Congressional District House seat, driven by 2025 redistricting under Prop 50 that redrew the district into southeast Los Angeles County—a reliably Democratic area with 45% Democratic voter registration versus 24% Republican. Incumbent Rep. Linda Sánchez leads fundraising with over $600,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, outpacing challengers like Hector De La Torre and Shonique Williams, while the sole Republican, Mitch Clemmons, reports no funds raised. The March 6 filing deadline confirmed this lopsided field ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Potential shifts include a GOP surge to secure a primary advancement spot, a Democratic scandal, or a national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout in this safe Democratic seat per Cook Political Report ratings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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