**Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D), a progressive freshman succeeding Barbara Lee, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably blue East Bay seat with 67% Democratic voter registration and minimal Republican presence at 6%.** No major challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where California voters select the top two vote-getters regardless of party for the November general election, reinforcing Simon's incumbency edge and fundraising lead. Recent filings confirm her re-election bid with strong party backing, while national midterm dynamics favor Democrats in safe districts like CA-12. Scenarios to shift odds include a damaging scandal, health issue, or surprise Republican surge in the primary—though historical base rates show incumbents winning over 90% of safe seats—but low GOP turnout and district demographics make upsets rare.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-12 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$31,880 Объем
$31,880 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
5%
$31,880 Объем
$31,880 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$20,165 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$11,714 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D), a progressive freshman succeeding Barbara Lee, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably blue East Bay seat with 67% Democratic voter registration and minimal Republican presence at 6%.** No major challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where California voters select the top two vote-getters regardless of party for the November general election, reinforcing Simon's incumbency edge and fundraising lead. Recent filings confirm her re-election bid with strong party backing, while national midterm dynamics favor Democrats in safe districts like CA-12. Scenarios to shift odds include a damaging scandal, health issue, or surprise Republican surge in the primary—though historical base rates show incumbents winning over 90% of safe seats—but low GOP turnout and district demographics make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$31,880Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D), a progressive freshman succeeding Barbara Lee, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably blue East Bay seat with 67% Democratic voter registration and minimal Republican presence at 6%.** No major challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where California voters select the top two vote-getters regardless of party for the November general election, reinforcing Simon's incumbency edge and fundraising lead. Recent filings confirm her re-election bid with strong party backing, while national midterm dynamics favor Democrats in safe districts like CA-12. Scenarios to shift odds include a damaging scandal, health issue, or surprise Republican surge in the primary—though historical base rates show incumbents winning over 90% of safe seats—but low GOP turnout and district demographics make upsets rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$31,880Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D), a progressive freshman succeeding Barbara Lee, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in California's 12th Congressional District, a reliably blue East Bay seat with 67% Democratic voter registration and minimal Republican presence at 6%.** No major challengers have emerged ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where California voters select the top two vote-getters regardless of party for the November general election, reinforcing Simon's incumbency edge and fundraising lead. Recent filings confirm her re-election bid with strong party backing, while national midterm dynamics favor Democrats in safe districts like CA-12. Scenarios to shift odds include a damaging scandal, health issue, or surprise Republican surge in the primary—though historical base rates show incumbents winning over 90% of safe seats—but low GOP turnout and district demographics make upsets rare.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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