California's 15th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area encompassing San Mateo and parts of Santa Clara counties with a partisan voting index of D+22, has traders pricing the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability to retain the seat held by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin since 2022. Mullin's dominant 74% primary win in March sidelined challengers, while the Republican nominee trails far behind amid weak fundraising and no polling shifts indicating upset potential. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues for Mullin, or a massive national Republican wave overwhelming incumbency advantages in safe seats, the general election on November 5 remains heavily tilted toward Democrats, aligning with historical base rates where such districts deliver 70%+ Democratic margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCA-15 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-15 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$18,435 Объем
$18,435 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
5%
$18,435 Объем
$18,435 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$18,435 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area encompassing San Mateo and parts of Santa Clara counties with a partisan voting index of D+22, has traders pricing the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability to retain the seat held by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin since 2022. Mullin's dominant 74% primary win in March sidelined challengers, while the Republican nominee trails far behind amid weak fundraising and no polling shifts indicating upset potential. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues for Mullin, or a massive national Republican wave overwhelming incumbency advantages in safe seats, the general election on November 5 remains heavily tilted toward Democrats, aligning with historical base rates where such districts deliver 70%+ Democratic margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$18,435Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area encompassing San Mateo and parts of Santa Clara counties with a partisan voting index of D+22, has traders pricing the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability to retain the seat held by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin since 2022. Mullin's dominant 74% primary win in March sidelined challengers, while the Republican nominee trails far behind amid weak fundraising and no polling shifts indicating upset potential. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues for Mullin, or a massive national Republican wave overwhelming incumbency advantages in safe seats, the general election on November 5 remains heavily tilted toward Democrats, aligning with historical base rates where such districts deliver 70%+ Democratic margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$18,435Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 15th Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold in the Bay Area encompassing San Mateo and parts of Santa Clara counties with a partisan voting index of D+22, has traders pricing the Democratic Party at 94.5% implied probability to retain the seat held by incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin since 2022. Mullin's dominant 74% primary win in March sidelined challengers, while the Republican nominee trails far behind amid weak fundraising and no polling shifts indicating upset potential. Absent late-breaking scandals, health issues for Mullin, or a massive national Republican wave overwhelming incumbency advantages in safe seats, the general election on November 5 remains heavily tilted toward Democrats, aligning with historical base rates where such districts deliver 70%+ Democratic margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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