Bobby Pulido holds a strong lead in trader pricing for the Texas 15th congressional district race due to consistent polling advantages and his high name recognition as a Tejano musician in the majority-Hispanic South Texas district. Recent surveys, including a late-September House Majority PAC poll showing Pulido ahead 54-41 and earlier ones placing him at 50-45 or better, have prompted major forecasters to shift the contest to toss-up status after initial lean-Republican ratings. The 2025 redistricting left the seat with new territory where De La Cruz has less established support, while Pulido’s moderate platform and community events have improved Democratic positioning despite the district’s 2024 presidential results. Negative attacks from both campaigns and outside spending have intensified, but voter sentiment reflected in current polling and prediction-market consensus continues to favor the Democratic challenger ahead of the November general election.