Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean encompassing New Orleans, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner. Recent polling averages show Carter leading at 72% ahead of the jungle primary on November 3, bolstered by over $1 million in fundraising and fragmented opposition, including Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, reflecting historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue districts. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout, though base rates for upsets remain low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей LA-02
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей LA-02
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean encompassing New Orleans, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner. Recent polling averages show Carter leading at 72% ahead of the jungle primary on November 3, bolstered by over $1 million in fundraising and fragmented opposition, including Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, reflecting historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue districts. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout, though base rates for upsets remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean encompassing New Orleans, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner. Recent polling averages show Carter leading at 72% ahead of the jungle primary on November 3, bolstered by over $1 million in fundraising and fragmented opposition, including Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, reflecting historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue districts. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout, though base rates for upsets remain low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Troy Carter's commanding position in Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, a safely Democratic seat with a D+25 partisan lean encompassing New Orleans, underpins trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic winner. Recent polling averages show Carter leading at 72% ahead of the jungle primary on November 3, bolstered by over $1 million in fundraising and fragmented opposition, including Republican Jimmy Harris at 12%. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, reflecting historical incumbency advantages in deep-blue districts. Realistic challenges include a late-breaking scandal, health issues, or depressed Democratic turnout, though base rates for upsets remain low.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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