Incumbent Democratic Representative Mark Takano anchors the strong trader consensus in the CA-39 House race, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean across Los Angeles and Orange County precincts and its history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, supported by voter registration advantages and limited Republican recruitment ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Steve Manos remains the sole notable GOP challenger with modest fundraising, providing little momentum to shift probabilities. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen local scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, the structural barriers—incumbency, demographic composition, and fundraising disparities—have kept the implied probability for a Democratic hold above 90 percent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-39 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-39 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$32,791 Объем
$32,791 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
8%
$32,791 Объем
$32,791 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$26,629 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$6,162 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mark Takano anchors the strong trader consensus in the CA-39 House race, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean across Los Angeles and Orange County precincts and its history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, supported by voter registration advantages and limited Republican recruitment ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Steve Manos remains the sole notable GOP challenger with modest fundraising, providing little momentum to shift probabilities. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen local scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, the structural barriers—incumbency, demographic composition, and fundraising disparities—have kept the implied probability for a Democratic hold above 90 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$32,791Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mark Takano anchors the strong trader consensus in the CA-39 House race, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean across Los Angeles and Orange County precincts and its history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, supported by voter registration advantages and limited Republican recruitment ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Steve Manos remains the sole notable GOP challenger with modest fundraising, providing little momentum to shift probabilities. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen local scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, the structural barriers—incumbency, demographic composition, and fundraising disparities—have kept the implied probability for a Democratic hold above 90 percent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$32,791Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Mark Takano anchors the strong trader consensus in the CA-39 House race, reflecting the district’s consistent partisan lean across Los Angeles and Orange County precincts and its history of double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, supported by voter registration advantages and limited Republican recruitment ahead of the June 2 primary and November general election. Steve Manos remains the sole notable GOP challenger with modest fundraising, providing little momentum to shift probabilities. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen local scandal could theoretically narrow the gap, the structural barriers—incumbency, demographic composition, and fundraising disparities—have kept the implied probability for a Democratic hold above 90 percent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы