Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+8 Cook PVI lean, her unopposed May 19 primary path, and consistent large-margin victories, including 59% in 2024 against Republican David Winkler. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, citing Dean's seniority on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees and the suburb-heavy Montgomery County electorate's reliable Democratic turnout. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with GOP primary contenders Ismaine Ayouaz and Aurora Stuski lacking name recognition or fundraising to date. Upsets could arise from a scandal enveloping Dean, a standout Republican nominee surging post-primary, or a national midterm wave, though structural barriers keep Republican odds at 8%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоPA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
PA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
91%
Республиканская партия
8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
91%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+8 Cook PVI lean, her unopposed May 19 primary path, and consistent large-margin victories, including 59% in 2024 against Republican David Winkler. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, citing Dean's seniority on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees and the suburb-heavy Montgomery County electorate's reliable Democratic turnout. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with GOP primary contenders Ismaine Ayouaz and Aurora Stuski lacking name recognition or fundraising to date. Upsets could arise from a scandal enveloping Dean, a standout Republican nominee surging post-primary, or a national midterm wave, though structural barriers keep Republican odds at 8%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+8 Cook PVI lean, her unopposed May 19 primary path, and consistent large-margin victories, including 59% in 2024 against Republican David Winkler. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, citing Dean's seniority on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees and the suburb-heavy Montgomery County electorate's reliable Democratic turnout. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with GOP primary contenders Ismaine Ayouaz and Aurora Stuski lacking name recognition or fundraising to date. Upsets could arise from a scandal enveloping Dean, a standout Republican nominee surging post-primary, or a national midterm wave, though structural barriers keep Republican odds at 8%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Madeleine Dean (D) commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's D+8 Cook PVI lean, her unopposed May 19 primary path, and consistent large-margin victories, including 59% in 2024 against Republican David Winkler. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Democratic, citing Dean's seniority on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs committees and the suburb-heavy Montgomery County electorate's reliable Democratic turnout. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with GOP primary contenders Ismaine Ayouaz and Aurora Stuski lacking name recognition or fundraising to date. Upsets could arise from a scandal enveloping Dean, a standout Republican nominee surging post-primary, or a national midterm wave, though structural barriers keep Republican odds at 8%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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