Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNJ-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NJ-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
91%
Демократическая партия
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
91%
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Republican incumbent Chris Smith, seeking a record 24th term in New Jersey's 4th Congressional District after 46 years in office, faces no Republican primary opposition following Rob Canfield's campaign suspension last week, solidifying trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for a GOP hold. The R+14 district, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, saw Smith win 67% in 2024 amid a fragmented Democratic primary field featuring John Blake, Julie Flynn, and others lacking fundraising edge or polling strength. While barriers to a Democratic upset remain high, scenarios like a standout nominee consolidating resources, Smith's health concerns at age 72, or a national midterm wave could narrow odds ahead of the June 2 primaries.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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