Redistricting through California's Proposition 50 has shifted the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat with a D+10 partisan lean, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to seek reelection in the neighboring district instead. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the 6th district, now leads the June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and a limited Republican field, bolstered by strong name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome in the November general election, though an unexpected primary upset, late scandal involving the leading nominee, or unusually high Republican turnout in the northern Sierra Nevada counties could still alter the trajectory before ballots are cast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$26,169 Объем
$26,169 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
89%
Республиканская партия
5%
$26,169 Объем
$26,169 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$14,113 Объем
89%
Республиканская партия
$12,056 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California's Proposition 50 has shifted the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat with a D+10 partisan lean, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to seek reelection in the neighboring district instead. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the 6th district, now leads the June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and a limited Republican field, bolstered by strong name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome in the November general election, though an unexpected primary upset, late scandal involving the leading nominee, or unusually high Republican turnout in the northern Sierra Nevada counties could still alter the trajectory before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$26,169Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through California's Proposition 50 has shifted the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat with a D+10 partisan lean, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to seek reelection in the neighboring district instead. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the 6th district, now leads the June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and a limited Republican field, bolstered by strong name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome in the November general election, though an unexpected primary upset, late scandal involving the leading nominee, or unusually high Republican turnout in the northern Sierra Nevada counties could still alter the trajectory before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$26,169Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting through California's Proposition 50 has shifted the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat with a D+10 partisan lean, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to seek reelection in the neighboring district instead. Democratic Representative Ami Bera, previously representing the 6th district, now leads the June 2 top-two primary against several Democratic challengers and a limited Republican field, bolstered by strong name recognition and fundraising. These structural changes and candidate positioning have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic outcome in the November general election, though an unexpected primary upset, late scandal involving the leading nominee, or unusually high Republican turnout in the northern Sierra Nevada counties could still alter the trajectory before ballots are cast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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