Aisha Wahab leads the CA-14 special election market at 85.5% trader-implied probability, driven by her decisive primary performances and institutional support ahead of the August 18, 2026, runoff against Melissa Hernandez. Wahab, a state senator, captured 43% in the June special primary and 38% in the regular primary, outpacing Hernandez by wide margins in both contests. The California Democratic Party endorsement and alignment with established party structures further consolidated support in this safely Democratic Bay Area district, created by the vacancy following Eric Swalwell’s resignation. Hernandez, the BART board president and former Dublin mayor, trails at 12.4% amid lower primary totals and limited organizational backing. With polls closed and results pending certification, the current pricing reflects consensus on Wahab’s path to victory under the top-two runoff format.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
CA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей (физическое лицо)
$10,063 Объем
$10,063 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Айша Вахаб
86%
Мелисса Эрнандес
12%
$10,063 Объем
$10,063 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Айша Вахаб
$6,522 Объем
86%
Мелисса Эрнандес
$3,541 Объем
12%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab leads the CA-14 special election market at 85.5% trader-implied probability, driven by her decisive primary performances and institutional support ahead of the August 18, 2026, runoff against Melissa Hernandez. Wahab, a state senator, captured 43% in the June special primary and 38% in the regular primary, outpacing Hernandez by wide margins in both contests. The California Democratic Party endorsement and alignment with established party structures further consolidated support in this safely Democratic Bay Area district, created by the vacancy following Eric Swalwell’s resignation. Hernandez, the BART board president and former Dublin mayor, trails at 12.4% amid lower primary totals and limited organizational backing. With polls closed and results pending certification, the current pricing reflects consensus on Wahab’s path to victory under the top-two runoff format.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Объем
$10,063Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab leads the CA-14 special election market at 85.5% trader-implied probability, driven by her decisive primary performances and institutional support ahead of the August 18, 2026, runoff against Melissa Hernandez. Wahab, a state senator, captured 43% in the June special primary and 38% in the regular primary, outpacing Hernandez by wide margins in both contests. The California Democratic Party endorsement and alignment with established party structures further consolidated support in this safely Democratic Bay Area district, created by the vacancy following Eric Swalwell’s resignation. Hernandez, the BART board president and former Dublin mayor, trails at 12.4% amid lower primary totals and limited organizational backing. With polls closed and results pending certification, the current pricing reflects consensus on Wahab’s path to victory under the top-two runoff format.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$10,063Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab leads the CA-14 special election market at 85.5% trader-implied probability, driven by her decisive primary performances and institutional support ahead of the August 18, 2026, runoff against Melissa Hernandez. Wahab, a state senator, captured 43% in the June special primary and 38% in the regular primary, outpacing Hernandez by wide margins in both contests. The California Democratic Party endorsement and alignment with established party structures further consolidated support in this safely Democratic Bay Area district, created by the vacancy following Eric Swalwell’s resignation. Hernandez, the BART board president and former Dublin mayor, trails at 12.4% amid lower primary totals and limited organizational backing. With polls closed and results pending certification, the current pricing reflects consensus on Wahab’s path to victory under the top-two runoff format.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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