Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win Virginia's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—encompassing Richmond and surrounding areas with a history of wide-blue margins in recent cycles, including her 2024 reelection victory. No credible Republican has emerged for the August 4 primaries, leaving only Independent Jason Brown II, a low-profile progressive, in the field so far; McClellan's fundraising dominance ($747,000 raised) further solidifies her position amid quiet early-cycle developments. A late-breaking GOP recruit, personal scandal, health issue, or strong national Republican midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоVA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
VA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win Virginia's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—encompassing Richmond and surrounding areas with a history of wide-blue margins in recent cycles, including her 2024 reelection victory. No credible Republican has emerged for the August 4 primaries, leaving only Independent Jason Brown II, a low-profile progressive, in the field so far; McClellan's fundraising dominance ($747,000 raised) further solidifies her position amid quiet early-cycle developments. A late-breaking GOP recruit, personal scandal, health issue, or strong national Republican midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win Virginia's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—encompassing Richmond and surrounding areas with a history of wide-blue margins in recent cycles, including her 2024 reelection victory. No credible Republican has emerged for the August 4 primaries, leaving only Independent Jason Brown II, a low-profile progressive, in the field so far; McClellan's fundraising dominance ($747,000 raised) further solidifies her position amid quiet early-cycle developments. A late-breaking GOP recruit, personal scandal, health issue, or strong national Republican midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jennifer McClellan commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability to win Virginia's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean—encompassing Richmond and surrounding areas with a history of wide-blue margins in recent cycles, including her 2024 reelection victory. No credible Republican has emerged for the August 4 primaries, leaving only Independent Jason Brown II, a low-profile progressive, in the field so far; McClellan's fundraising dominance ($747,000 raised) further solidifies her position amid quiet early-cycle developments. A late-breaking GOP recruit, personal scandal, health issue, or strong national Republican midterm wave could challenge this outlook ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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