Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's structural dominance in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, following the June 2 top-two primary. Carbajal boasts a massive fundraising edge with $3.3 million cash-on-hand versus Republican challenger Bob Smith's $56,000, alongside consistent 60%+ victories in recent cycles and a Solid Democratic Cook rating. Recent candidate profiles from early May highlight low-viability Democratic primary challengers Sarah Bacon and Helena Pasquarella, with prediction markets pricing Carbajal and Smith to advance. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding two non-Democrats (under 6% implied odds), a major Carbajal scandal, or an overwhelming GOP midterm wave boosting turnout in Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей CA-24
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей CA-24
$17,816 Объем
$17,816 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$17,816 Объем
$17,816 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$9,935 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$7,881 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's structural dominance in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, following the June 2 top-two primary. Carbajal boasts a massive fundraising edge with $3.3 million cash-on-hand versus Republican challenger Bob Smith's $56,000, alongside consistent 60%+ victories in recent cycles and a Solid Democratic Cook rating. Recent candidate profiles from early May highlight low-viability Democratic primary challengers Sarah Bacon and Helena Pasquarella, with prediction markets pricing Carbajal and Smith to advance. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding two non-Democrats (under 6% implied odds), a major Carbajal scandal, or an overwhelming GOP midterm wave boosting turnout in Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Объем
$17,816Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's structural dominance in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, following the June 2 top-two primary. Carbajal boasts a massive fundraising edge with $3.3 million cash-on-hand versus Republican challenger Bob Smith's $56,000, alongside consistent 60%+ victories in recent cycles and a Solid Democratic Cook rating. Recent candidate profiles from early May highlight low-viability Democratic primary challengers Sarah Bacon and Helena Pasquarella, with prediction markets pricing Carbajal and Smith to advance. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding two non-Democrats (under 6% implied odds), a major Carbajal scandal, or an overwhelming GOP midterm wave boosting turnout in Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$17,816Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's structural dominance in the D+13 leaning CA-24 district drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a Democratic general election winner on November 3, following the June 2 top-two primary. Carbajal boasts a massive fundraising edge with $3.3 million cash-on-hand versus Republican challenger Bob Smith's $56,000, alongside consistent 60%+ victories in recent cycles and a Solid Democratic Cook rating. Recent candidate profiles from early May highlight low-viability Democratic primary challengers Sarah Bacon and Helena Pasquarella, with prediction markets pricing Carbajal and Smith to advance. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding two non-Democrats (under 6% implied odds), a major Carbajal scandal, or an overwhelming GOP midterm wave boosting turnout in Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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