Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with a strong 76% share in Illinois' 6th Congressional District, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. The district's D+3 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries reinforce this positioning. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, significant candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIL-06 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
IL-06 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$27,257 Объем
$27,257 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
92%
Республиканская партия
7%
$27,257 Объем
$27,257 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$10,032 Объем
92%
Республиканская партия
$17,225 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with a strong 76% share in Illinois' 6th Congressional District, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. The district's D+3 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries reinforce this positioning. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, significant candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$27,257Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with a strong 76% share in Illinois' 6th Congressional District, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. The district's D+3 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries reinforce this positioning. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, significant candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$27,257Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with a strong 76% share in Illinois' 6th Congressional District, facing Republican nominee Niki Conforti in the November general election. The district's D+3 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus around a 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Casten's substantial fundraising lead and the absence of competitive polling or major shifts since the primaries reinforce this positioning. Late developments such as a national Republican surge, significant candidate-specific events, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic paths to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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