In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей OH-02
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей OH-02
$16,218 Объем
$16,218 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
92%
Демократическая партия
7%
$16,218 Объем
$16,218 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
92%
Демократическая партия
$16,218 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$16,218Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$16,218Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+24 where Donald Trump won by 39 points in 2020, traders price the GOP nominee Mike Rulli at 91.5% implied probability to win the House election, driven by the district's reliable conservative base and lack of competitive polling. Rulli, a state senator, advanced through the March primary, while Democrat Matthew Hartman faces steep structural headwinds amid minimal Democratic performance history here. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with early voting now underway ahead of November 5. Upsets could stem from unforeseen GOP scandals, massive Democratic turnout in rural Appalachia, or national midterm wave effects, though historical precedents favor incumbency-like continuity in safe seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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