Trader consensus has locked in 15°C as Wuhan's highest temperature on March 20, driven by converged forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration projections showing daytime highs peaking at 14-15°C amid cool northerly flows and cloudy skies. Historical March data for Wuhan averages 13-16°C maxima, aligning with current neutral ENSO conditions suppressing extremes. Local observations yesterday hit only 12°C, reinforcing model reliability. Realistic challenges include a sudden warm front or urban heat island amplification pushing to 16-17°C—low-probability events given ensemble agreement and stable upper-air patterns—but any late-afternoon sunshine burst could test the threshold before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Ухане 20 марта?
Самая высокая температура в Ухане 20 марта?
15°C 100.0%
8°C или ниже <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$35,393 Объем
$35,393 Объем
8°C или ниже
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Да
16°C
Нет
17°C
Нет
18°C или выше
Нет
15°C 100.0%
8°C или ниже <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$35,393 Объем
$35,393 Объем
8°C или ниже
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C
Нет
15°C
Да
16°C
Нет
17°C
Нет
18°C или выше
Нет
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has locked in 15°C as Wuhan's highest temperature on March 20, driven by converged forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside China Meteorological Administration projections showing daytime highs peaking at 14-15°C amid cool northerly flows and cloudy skies. Historical March data for Wuhan averages 13-16°C maxima, aligning with current neutral ENSO conditions suppressing extremes. Local observations yesterday hit only 12°C, reinforcing model reliability. Realistic challenges include a sudden warm front or urban heat island amplification pushing to 16-17°C—low-probability events given ensemble agreement and stable upper-air patterns—but any late-afternoon sunshine burst could test the threshold before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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