Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Shenzhen on March 26, at 88.3% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime maximums clustering around 29°C under a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and radiative heating. Recent 24-hour updates show model convergence after yesterday's observations of 27-28°C highs, with minimal wind shear and urban heat island effects in Shenzhen nudging probabilities away from 30°C or higher (now 8.5%), while 28°C odds remain negligible at 0.1%. Historical March averages hover near 24°C, but this early spring warmth aligns with positive temperature anomalies; watch CMA's evening update for final refinements before resolution based on official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
29°C 91.9%
30°C or higher 5.9%
28°C <1%
$208,915 Объем
$208,915 Объем
28°C
<1%
29°C
92%
30°C or higher
6%
29°C 91.9%
30°C or higher 5.9%
28°C <1%
$208,915 Объем
$208,915 Объем
28°C
<1%
29°C
92%
30°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a highest temperature of 29°C in Shenzhen on March 26, at 88.3% implied probability, reflecting the latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime maximums clustering around 29°C under a dominant subtropical high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and radiative heating. Recent 24-hour updates show model convergence after yesterday's observations of 27-28°C highs, with minimal wind shear and urban heat island effects in Shenzhen nudging probabilities away from 30°C or higher (now 8.5%), while 28°C odds remain negligible at 0.1%. Historical March averages hover near 24°C, but this early spring warmth aligns with positive temperature anomalies; watch CMA's evening update for final refinements before resolution based on official station data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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