Traders on Polymarket assign the highest implied probability (31.5%) to a Munich high of 9°C on March 28, driven by the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF model consensus showing peak afternoon temperatures around that mark amid a stable high-pressure system and northerly winds suppressing warmth. The 21.5% odds for 10°C and 19.5% for 8°C reflect ensemble forecast spreads, with GFS runs slightly warmer but recent 24-hour updates incorporating cooler nocturnal inversions and partial cloud cover tilting sentiment downward from earlier mild-spring projections. Late March climatology averages 11°C highs, yet current upper-air blocking patterns introduce uncertainty; key variables include exact timing of diurnal heating, urban heat island effects in Munich, and any convective showers. Official hourly observations from Munich Airport will resolve the market, with new DWD bulletins expected midday.