Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF, projecting Los Angeles highs around 78-82°F on April 4 under a building high-pressure ridge over the Southwest, promoting subsidence and clear skies after recent marine layer episodes. The 35% implied probability for 80°F or higher stems from potential early stratus clearing and light offshore flow boosting inland advection, while 27% for 78-79°F accounts for partial coastal cooling persistence. Differentiating factors include burn-off timing of low clouds, sea surface temperature influences on the marine layer, and slight model divergences—historical early April averages hover near 73°F at LAX. New 12-hourly model runs and NWS advisories expected by April 2 could sharpen odds.