Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 66-69°F for Los Angeles on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance from the Los Angeles/Oxnard office emphasizing a persistent marine layer capped by a shallow inversion around 2,300 feet—trapping cool, moist air from the Pacific and limiting daytime heating after March's record heatwave peaked near 99°F downtown. Closely matched 33% and 31% implied probabilities for 66-67°F versus 68-69°F stem from ensemble forecast spread: GFS models hint at partial stratocumulus burn-off allowing slight inland warmup, while ECMWF maintains stronger onshore flow for cooler coastal readings at USC downtown, the likely resolution site. Historical early April averages hover near 72°F, but current analogs with similar inversions support upper-60s outcomes; monitor afternoon soundings and 00Z model runs for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Los Angeles on April 1?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on April 1?
66-67°F 58%
68-69°F 28%
64-65°F 16%
70-71°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
59°F or below
2%
60-61°F
8%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
48%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
8%
78°F or higher
1%
66-67°F 58%
68-69°F 28%
64-65°F 16%
70-71°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 1, 2026
59°F or below
$750 Объем
2%
60-61°F
$16 Объем
8%
62-63°F
$24 Объем
13%
64-65°F
$38 Объем
16%
66-67°F
$150 Объем
48%
68-69°F
$38 Объем
27%
70-71°F
$35 Объем
11%
72-73°F
$16 Объем
20%
74-75°F
$20 Объем
8%
76-77°F
$24 Объем
8%
78°F or higher
$294 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 66-69°F for Los Angeles on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance from the Los Angeles/Oxnard office emphasizing a persistent marine layer capped by a shallow inversion around 2,300 feet—trapping cool, moist air from the Pacific and limiting daytime heating after March's record heatwave peaked near 99°F downtown. Closely matched 33% and 31% implied probabilities for 66-67°F versus 68-69°F stem from ensemble forecast spread: GFS models hint at partial stratocumulus burn-off allowing slight inland warmup, while ECMWF maintains stronger onshore flow for cooler coastal readings at USC downtown, the likely resolution site. Historical early April averages hover near 72°F, but current analogs with similar inversions support upper-60s outcomes; monitor afternoon soundings and 00Z model runs for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Объем
$1,395Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 66-69°F for Los Angeles on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance from the Los Angeles/Oxnard office emphasizing a persistent marine layer capped by a shallow inversion around 2,300 feet—trapping cool, moist air from the Pacific and limiting daytime heating after March's record heatwave peaked near 99°F downtown. Closely matched 33% and 31% implied probabilities for 66-67°F versus 68-69°F stem from ensemble forecast spread: GFS models hint at partial stratocumulus burn-off allowing slight inland warmup, while ECMWF maintains stronger onshore flow for cooler coastal readings at USC downtown, the likely resolution site. Historical early April averages hover near 72°F, but current analogs with similar inversions support upper-60s outcomes; monitor afternoon soundings and 00Z model runs for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,395Дата окончания
Apr 1, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 66-69°F for Los Angeles on April 1, reflecting National Weather Service guidance from the Los Angeles/Oxnard office emphasizing a persistent marine layer capped by a shallow inversion around 2,300 feet—trapping cool, moist air from the Pacific and limiting daytime heating after March's record heatwave peaked near 99°F downtown. Closely matched 33% and 31% implied probabilities for 66-67°F versus 68-69°F stem from ensemble forecast spread: GFS models hint at partial stratocumulus burn-off allowing slight inland warmup, while ECMWF maintains stronger onshore flow for cooler coastal readings at USC downtown, the likely resolution site. Historical early April averages hover near 72°F, but current analogs with similar inversions support upper-60s outcomes; monitor afternoon soundings and 00Z model runs for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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