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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$471,544,654 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$471,544,654 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,136,435 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,722,183 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,306,100 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,394,281 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,958,174 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,492,238 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,343,128 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,315,391 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,439,897 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,374 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,010,557 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,393 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,485,468 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,908 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,650 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,953 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,070,391 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,221,984 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,661,801 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,351,893 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,963,259 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,559,867 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,368,478 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,020,209 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,640,038 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,296,453 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,409,699 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,763,472 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,161,036 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,119,627 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,915,629 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,286,151 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,037,650 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,922,496 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,059,769 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,532,776 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 17.8% implied probability on Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner market, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as trader consensus reflects unease over the Trump administration's one-month-old war with Iran that erupted February 28. U.S. airstrikes, troop deployments, and stalled objectives have eroded GOP momentum, dropping Vance's odds from over 22% pre-conflict amid criticism tying him to foreign policy risks, while Newsom surges via a March 12 California primary poll lead over Kamala Harris and anti-GOP messaging. Marco Rubio trails at 10.2% with donor buzz as Secretary of State. This tight contest stems from open primaries post-Trump term limits, with 2026 midterms, war resolution, nominee races, and scandals poised to drive separation in skin-in-the-game pricing.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 17.8% implied probability on Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner market, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as trader consensus reflects unease over the Trump administration's one-month-old war with Iran that erupted February 28. U.S. airstrikes, troop deployments, and stalled objectives have eroded GOP momentum, dropping Vance's odds from over 22% pre-conflict amid criticism tying him to foreign policy risks, while Newsom surges via a March 12 California primary poll lead over Kamala Harris and anti-GOP messaging. Marco Rubio trails at 10.2% with donor buzz as Secretary of State. This tight contest stems from open primaries post-Trump term limits, with 2026 midterms, war resolution, nominee races, and scandals poised to drive separation in skin-in-the-game pricing.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 17.8% implied probability on Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner market, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as trader consensus reflects unease over the Trump administration's one-month-old war with Iran that erupted February 28. U.S. airstrikes, troop deployments, and stalled objectives have eroded GOP momentum, dropping Vance's odds from over 22% pre-conflict amid criticism tying him to foreign policy risks, while Newsom surges via a March 12 California primary poll lead over Kamala Harris and anti-GOP messaging. Marco Rubio trails at 10.2% with donor buzz as Secretary of State. This tight contest stems from open primaries post-Trump term limits, with 2026 midterms, war resolution, nominee races, and scandals poised to drive separation in skin-in-the-game pricing.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 17.8% implied probability on Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner market, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as trader consensus reflects unease over the Trump administration's one-month-old war with Iran that erupted February 28. U.S. airstrikes, troop deployments, and stalled objectives have eroded GOP momentum, dropping Vance's odds from over 22% pre-conflict amid criticism tying him to foreign policy risks, while Newsom surges via a March 12 California primary poll lead over Kamala Harris and anti-GOP messaging. Marco Rubio trails at 10.2% with donor buzz as Secretary of State. This tight contest stems from open primaries post-Trump term limits, with 2026 midterms, war resolution, nominee races, and scandals poised to drive separation in skin-in-the-game pricing.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" has generated $471.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.