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Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

Market icon
Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

Forças Libanesas (FL) 13%

Organização Nasserista Popular (PNO) 4.2%

Aliança Watani (Watani) 3.1%

ReLebanon 2.9%

Polymarket

$221,061 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL) 13%

Organização Nasserista Popular (PNO) 4.2%

Aliança Watani (Watani) 3.1%

ReLebanon 2.9%

Polymarket

$221,061 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL)

$135,922 Vol.

13%

Organização Nasserista Popular (PNO)

$2,147 Vol.

6%

Aliança Watani (Watani)

$0 Vol.

3%

ReLebanon

$1,779 Vol.

3%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$0 Vol.

3%

Partido do Diálogo Nacional (PDN)

$0 Vol.

3%

Partido da União (UP)

$2,551 Vol.

2%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$41,748 Vol.

2%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$0 Vol.

2%

Partido Taqaddom

$0 Vol.

2%

Movimento Amal (Amal)

$26,786 Vol.

2%

Grupo Islâmico (GI)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimento Marada (MM)

$2,249 Vol.

7%

Associação de Projetos de Caridade Islâmica (ICPA)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimento Dignidade (MD)

$0 Vol.

1%

Federação Revolucionária Armênia (ARF)

$4,602 Vol.

1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$0 Vol.

1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath)

$3,277 Vol.

1%

Movimento de Independência (IM)

$0 Vol.

7%

Partido Socialista Progressista (PSP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Social-Democrata (Lana)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing May elections amid intensified Israel-Hezbollah clashes, including the March 1 Israeli strike eliminating Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad, fostering trader uncertainty in a fragmented field. Lebanese Forces leads implied probabilities with trader consensus favoring its strong Christian opposition base and anti-Hezbollah stance post-war setbacks, contrasting Independence Movement's cross-sectarian reform appeal from 2019 protests, Marada Movement's traditionalist networks, and Popular Nasserist Organization's nationalist draw. Support consolidation hinges on coalition list formations under proportional representation, sectarian endorsements, Shia opposition gains against Hezbollah-Amal dominance, and potential legal reversals of the postponement.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$221,061
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliament extended its mandate by two years on March 9, 2026, postponing May elections amid intensified Israel-Hezbollah clashes, including the March 1 Israeli strike eliminating Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad, fostering trader uncertainty in a fragmented field. Lebanese Forces leads implied probabilities with trader consensus favoring its strong Christian opposition base and anti-Hezbollah stance post-war setbacks, contrasting Independence Movement's cross-sectarian reform appeal from 2019 protests, Marada Movement's traditionalist networks, and Popular Nasserist Organization's nationalist draw. Support consolidation hinges on coalition list formations under proportional representation, sectarian endorsements, Shia opposition gains against Hezbollah-Amal dominance, and potential legal reversals of the postponement.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$221,061
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at 13%, followed by "Movimento Marada (MM)" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" has generated $221.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Movimento Marada (MM)" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.