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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

Market icon
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$470,852,574 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$470,852,574 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,122,977 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,717,645 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,302,173 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,376,823 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,950,275 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,486,065 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,339,306 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,303,178 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,437,428 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,441,344 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,011 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,004,186 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,474,709 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,728 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,383 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,905 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,065,732 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,146 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,632,413 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,350,161 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,959,923 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,552,828 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,313 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,610,913 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,293,264 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,933,611 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,118,622 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,402,016 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,728,922 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,152,275 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,253,467 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,941,576 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,857,939 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,870,861 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,937,035 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,494,288 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom remain virtually tied as trader consensus frontrunners in the open 2028 presidential race, with Vance's implied probability recently crashing to an 18% low amid perceptions of fallout from President Trump's ongoing Iran conflict—including postponed strikes on energy infrastructure, a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal, and mixed signals on negotiations over the past week. These developments have shadowed GOP prospects, eroding Vance's edge as incumbent heir apparent despite his CPAC straw poll win, while boosting Newsom's national profile as a leading Democratic alternative. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's surge to third reflects cabinet visibility gains. The 2026 midterms and Iran resolution trajectory will likely determine separation in this fragmented field ahead of primaries.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom remain virtually tied as trader consensus frontrunners in the open 2028 presidential race, with Vance's implied probability recently crashing to an 18% low amid perceptions of fallout from President Trump's ongoing Iran conflict—including postponed strikes on energy infrastructure, a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal, and mixed signals on negotiations over the past week. These developments have shadowed GOP prospects, eroding Vance's edge as incumbent heir apparent despite his CPAC straw poll win, while boosting Newsom's national profile as a leading Democratic alternative. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's surge to third reflects cabinet visibility gains. The 2026 midterms and Iran resolution trajectory will likely determine separation in this fragmented field ahead of primaries.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom remain virtually tied as trader consensus frontrunners in the open 2028 presidential race, with Vance's implied probability recently crashing to an 18% low amid perceptions of fallout from President Trump's ongoing Iran conflict—including postponed strikes on energy infrastructure, a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal, and mixed signals on negotiations over the past week. These developments have shadowed GOP prospects, eroding Vance's edge as incumbent heir apparent despite his CPAC straw poll win, while boosting Newsom's national profile as a leading Democratic alternative. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's surge to third reflects cabinet visibility gains. The 2026 midterms and Iran resolution trajectory will likely determine separation in this fragmented field ahead of primaries.

Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom remain virtually tied as trader consensus frontrunners in the open 2028 presidential race, with Vance's implied probability recently crashing to an 18% low amid perceptions of fallout from President Trump's ongoing Iran conflict—including postponed strikes on energy infrastructure, a rejected 15-point ceasefire proposal, and mixed signals on negotiations over the past week. These developments have shadowed GOP prospects, eroding Vance's edge as incumbent heir apparent despite his CPAC straw poll win, while boosting Newsom's national profile as a leading Democratic alternative. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's surge to third reflects cabinet visibility gains. The 2026 midterms and Iran resolution trajectory will likely determine separation in this fragmented field ahead of primaries.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" has generated $470.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição presidencial de 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.